It’s been 224 days since Jay Collins resigned to become Gov. Ron DeSantis’ Lieutenant Governor. Tonight, voters in Florida’s Senate District 14 finally have a new state senator.
Democrat Brian Nathan, a union leader and U.S. Navy Veteran, scratched out a victory over Republican Josie Tomkow in the special election that wrapped tonight, according to unofficial results posted by the Hillsborough Supervisor of elections.
Nathan, 45, jumped out to an early lead after polls closed Tuesday night. He had 3,069 more votes than his 35-year-old opponent after early votes and vote-by-mail ballots were reported.
He held onto the lead by the slimmest of margins, earning 40,212 total votes while Tomkow hauled in 39,804.
The 408-vote advantage gives Nathan a 0.5% margin of victory.
Florida state statute calls for a recount for a contest if the margin of victory is less than or equal to 0.5%. A rep for the Hillsborough Supervisor of Elections told Creative Loafing Tampa Bay the state will not call for a recount until their office’s first unofficial results are reported on Friday.
“That will include any mail ballots that are cured or provisional ballots from today that are accepted,” the rep added.
Florida Politics, however, says that Tomkow conceded defeat at her watch party in Ybor City, hinting that she would be back on the ballot in November for the district’s regular election.
But Democrats aren’t taking that for granted. A 48-hour blit started the morning after the election. During that time organizers are hoping to get ballots cured and counted—and asking for volunteers to help them finish flipping the seat.
Nathan’s win comes despite him being outspent and outfundraised according to the News Service of Florida.
Florida Phoenix reported beyond Tomkow’s huge fundraising advantage lead over Nathan, a political action committee worth more than $3 million was also aiding her effort.
Republicans also enjoyed a voter registration advantage in the district overall, according to numbers from Feb. 23. Of the 299,317 registered voters, 116,095 were Republican, 93,403 Democrats, and 79,944 had no party affiliation.
Turnout in Florida’s SD14 special election was just under 27% .
Florida’s Senate District 14 stretches south from MacDill Air Force Base in South Tampa all the way to Odessa in the northern part of Hillsborough County. It goes as far east as New Tampa and west to Town ‘n’ Country. Carrollwood and Westchase are also in the district.
A Tampa Monitor analysis of voter turnout shows the highest concentration of voters in Odessa’s Precinct 518 where VR Systems data shows that registered Republicans outnumber Democrats 401-101 (119 NPA).
Further analysis by the coder-powered civics blog found that Nanthan enjoyed his widest margins of victory in Carver City-Lincoln Gardens Precinct 204 (83.43% of the vote) and New Tampa Precinct 355 (80.28%).
Tomkow mostly dominated in the outer reaches of the county in neighborhoods like Town ‘n’ Country Precinct 404 (72.22%) and the aforementioned Precinct 518 in Odessa (71.65%).
Collins flipped the seat in 2022 when he defeated Sen. Janet Cruz who had been in the incumbent since 2018.
Tomkow, who comes from a Polk County cattle family, served in different seats at the Florida legislature from 2018-2025, until she resigned to run in the SD 14 race. She responded to claims that she did not live in the district by explaining that her husband lives in South Tampa and that she has plans to move there whether she won or lost.
A media alert from the Hillsborough Supervisor of Elections notes that “provisional ballots, mail ballots pending signature cure, and overseas ballots that may be received within 10 days of the election are not included.
“Voters have until 5 p.m. March 26 to cure a Vote By Mail signature issue or provide proof of eligibility for a provisional ballot,” the alert added. “In accordance with Florida statute, the 1st Unofficial Results will be certified on March 27 at 9 a.m. On April 6, at 10 a.m., the Canvassing Board will certify Official Results and conduct a post-election audit to verify the tabulated results.”
Nathan wasn’t the lone Florida Democrat to win a special election on Tuesday night. In Palm Beach County House District 87—home of Mar-a-Lago—Emily Gregory topped Republican Jon Maples by a two-percent margin. Trump won that district by more than 10 points in 2024, according to the Florida Phoenix.
Tampa Monitor’s analysis of the partisan swing in the SD 14 race shows Democrats’ biggest gains happening in New Tampa Precinct 355. Republicans didn’t gain ground in many districts, but did see a positive swing in Town ‘n’ Country Precinct 404.
A third special election—for House District 51 in Polk County from which Tomkow resigned—was won by Republican Hilary Holley, who defeated Democrat Edwin Pérez by earning 54% of the vote.
In a statement sent following polls closing, Senate Democratic Leader Lori Berman welcomed Nathan and Gregory to the state legislature.
“The voters of Senate District 14 have spoken, and they’re clearly ready to see their leadership focus less on culture wars and more on affordability. I know that Senator Nathan will be ready to jump right in and work with the caucus on the upcoming special sessions, and I’m looking forward to serving with him during my final months in the Florida Senate,” she said about Nathan’s race.
Senate Democratic Leader Designate Tracie Davis said Nathan’s victory in a Republican-held district is an example of the GOP has lost the plot. “Our focus as a caucus will continue to be making Florida more affordable, and I can’t wait to work with Senator Nathan on that goal. He’s a welcome addition to the Senate Democrats,” she added.
This is a developing post.
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This article appears in Mar. 19 – 25, 2026.