The NFL Draft takes place April 29, almost two months from now. But, it’s never too early for a mock draft, especially since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are deciding to take their sweet time making significant roster moves.
There are ground rules for this draft though: I’m not simulating any trades, and the picks made are based on each team’s current roster needs. So, sorry Jets fans, no Deshaun Watson trade for you.
No. 1 Jacksonville Jaguars: QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
No-brainer here. Lawrence goes to a pretty favorable situation for a no. 1 pick (I mean, did anyone see Joe Burrow get absolutely destroyed in Cincinnati because the Bengals essentially had cardboard cutouts for offensive lineman?). The Jags certainly did their best tanking job this past year, but Jacksonville has a pair of first-round picks in this draft and a new head coach in Urban Meyer. The offensive line looks solid on paper, the receiver corps some interesting targets for Lawrence to throw to in DJ Chark and Laviska Shenault, Jr., and their running back James Robinson is coming off an excellent rookie year. I’d look for Lawrence to be an early favorite for offensive rookie of the year.
No. 2 New York Jets: WR Ja’Marr Chase, LSU
One of the most difficult picks to predict. Will the Jets abandon the Sam Darnold experiment? Will they go EDGE because new coach Robert Saleh is a defensive minded guy and the Jets have little-to-no talent on that side of the ball? No to both of those questions. I think the Jets go wideout here and run it back with Darnold. Chase is at the top of a lot of draft boards as far as the receiver position goes, despite his sitting out of the 2020 season, and with good reason. The guy is a monster on the outside, and in 2019 he was the best receiver in college football playing against those really good SEC corners. Given, he had Joe Burrow throwing him passes and Justin Jefferson running routes with him, but his talent is undeniable. The Jets finally give Sam Darnold some talent to throw to.
No. 3 Miami Dolphins: WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama
I know, right? Going back-to-back on wide receivers is a bit odd in the top-three picks, but that’s how good these guys are. Smith, for whatever reason, seems to fall out of the top-10 in a lot of mock drafts, but not on mine. He just won the Heisman, for goodness’ sake. Chase and Smith will be really good for a really long time, and the Dolphins get to reunite Smith with his teammate from Bama, Tua Tagovailoa, giving Miami a QB-WR duo for the near future.
No. 4 Atlanta Falcons: EDGE Gregory Rousseau, Miami
Another difficult pick to project due to the Falcons having so many needs across the board. This may seem a bit high for Rousseau, especially since he opted out of the 2020 season without putting up the eye-popping numbers that Ja’Marr Chase did in 2019, but he’s an incredibly gifted player athletically, and the Falcons need some type of pass rush. When in doubt, go with a pass rusher.
No. 5 Cincinnati Bengals: OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
If Sewell falls past the Jets and Dolphins, who could both use upgrades at the tackle position, don’t expect him to fall past the Bengals. The Bengals already lost their quarterback Joe Burrow once to a season-ending knee injury due to poor offensive line play, don’t expect them to make that same mistake. Sewell is the most talented O-line prospect in this draft, even if he’s a little raw. The good news is that he will be protecting someone expendable for his rookie year, as Burrow likely won’t return until 2022.
No. 6 Philadelphia Eagles: WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
Three wide receivers in the top-10 would be insane, but the Eagles are almost a lock to go wideout with this pick, no matter who falls to them. Waddle is the fastest wide receiver in this class, and playing at Alabama against other great athletes in the SEC proves that his speed will translate to the next level. Assuming he can return from that season-ending ankle injury, the Eagles will be grateful to have an elite talent like Waddle lining up to catch passes from newly appointed starter Jalen Hurts.
No. 7 Detroit Lions: LB Micah Parsons, Penn State
Some think the Lions might go with a QB project like Justin Fields or Trey Lance, but I think Detroit wants to give Jared Goff at least a year or two to see if he can get his game together. Parsons addresses an immediate need at the linebacker position, and despite the off-the-field problems that come with him, the Lions will likely pull the trigger on drafting the former Nittany Lion due to his sideline-to-sideline speed and ability to impact the game defensively in so many different ways.
No. 8 Carolina Panthers: TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
The Panthers are another popular team to draft a QB, with Teddy Bridgewater submitting a less-than-stellar 2020. But given his contract situation, I think Carolina goes for one of the most talented prospects in the draft in Pitts, giving Carolina a dynamic group of pass catchers for the next couple of years, regardless of who’s under center.
No. 9 Denver Broncos: QB Zach Wilson, BYU
Ohio State QB Justin Fields would be an understandable replacement here, but Wilson just seems like the type of guy the Broncos couldn’t pass up. His arm talent is really high, and despite the lack of competition he faced at BYU, I think the Broncos take a chance. They could easily go corner as well, but I think the Broncos go with the sexy pick here and take Wilson.
No. 10 Dallas Cowboys: EDGE Kwity Paye, Michigan
Another team that could go corner, the Cowboys have so many needs on the defensive side of the ball, it’s crazy. Paye can line up next to star defensive end DeMarcus Lawrence, though, and this last Super Bowl—where Bucs lineman dominated Kansas City’s offensive live—continued to prove that having elite pass rushers is a must if you want to win football games.
No. 11 New York Giants: CB Caleb Farley, Virginia Tech
The Giants are a team that could try to upgrade their offensive line by spending back-to-back first-round picks on an offensive lineman and draft Northwestern’s Rashawn Slater, but Slater’s big knock is his lack of star potential, and I think the Giants could really use another corner to play across from their big free agent signing, James Bradberry IV. Farley sat out of the 2020 season, but his 2019 was something to behold, posting a 26.8 passing rating in coverage, according to PFF.
No. 12 San Francisco 49ers: OT Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
You could easily flip-flop these last two picks, but the 49ers could be losing offensive tackle Trent Williams to free agency, and if San Francisco stays with Jimmy Garoppolo at QB, its offensive line play needs to be really solid because Jimmy G isn’t exactly the most mobile guy in the league. Slater gives them a dependable guy to put at left tackle, and the 49ers can now focus on addressing other needs in free agency, such as the cornerback position.
No. 13 Los Angeles Chargers: OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
The Chargers’ play at left tackle last season was abysmal, and was overshadowed by the brilliant play of quarterback Justin Herbert. But Los Angeles needs to fix it, and it needs to fix it immediately. The Chargers could opt to go looking on the free agency market to solve the problem, but Darrisaw provides them with a much cheaper option and gives them more salary cap flexibility to try and address their needs at the center and the linebacker positions.
No. 14 Minnesota Vikings: EDGE Jayson Oweh, Penn State
Oweh is one of the fastest guys coming off the edge in this draft, and lining him up next to Jamaican sensation Danielle Hunter is just scary to think about. The Vikings need to upgrade their pass rush, as they ranked bottom-five in pretty much every major defensive category relating to getting pressure on the QB.
No. 15 New England Patriots: QB Justin Fields, Ohio State
Man, putting Fields at no. 15 is a dangerous proposition. He could easily go no. 2, or a team could feel the need to trade into the top-five for him, but assuming the draft order holds true—and no tradesies in Carter’s mock draft—I’m slotting him here, going to New England and Bill Belichick. Quite a steal, and the Patriots would be looked at as one of the winners of this draft class if it happens.
No. 16 Arizona Cardinals: EDGE Jaelan Phillips, Miami
Arizona certainly has plenty of needs on the offensive line, and some people even think the Cardinals could go corner with conflicting reports about Patrick Peterson leaving, but as I’ve said, when in doubt, go EDGE rusher, and Phillips is certainly a talented one. Given, he has a bit of a scary injury history and had to transfer from UCLA to Miami because of it, but he had a really good 2020 season, and will be highly coveted by many teams in the first round.
No. 17 Las Vegas Raiders: CB Patrick Surtain II, Alabama
The Raiders had one of the worst secondaries in the NFL last season. They could go pass rusher here, but with how bad Las Vegas’ safeties and corners looked at times last year, Surtain would be a smart pick. Then again, the Raiders have been swinging and missing with a lot of their first round picks the last couple of years, so who knows? Maybe they do something weird and pick a quarterback. You know how much Jon Gruden loves QBs.
No. 18 Miami Dolphins: OG Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Reuniting former Trojan O-linemen Vera-Tucker and current Miami left tackle Austin Jackson, the Dolphins shore up their offensive line with another versatile guy who could really go tackle or guard, depending on what the Dolphins end up doing in free agency and with the rest of their draft. Vera-Tucker is a talented guy who is equally good in the running and passing game, and should help QB Tua Tagovailoa have a little more time to throw in his second year.
No. 19 Washington Football Team: QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State
No matter who ends up under center next year, Washington ends up with its QB of the future when it makes its pick at no. 19. Lance is a pretty big steal for a team that could manage to make the playoffs again this year even with its first-round pick sitting the bench the whole year. Drafting Lance might force Washington to find another “bridge” quarterback to play until Washington feels Lance is ready. If Washington signs Cam Newton in free agency, then it creates a reunion between head coach Ron Rivera and the former Panther and Patriot QB; most importantly, Washington gives Lance a year or two to sit around and learn some stuff. Despite Lance’s undeniable talent, he is a prime candidate for taking a redshirt season or two due to his lack of playing time against quality competition. Then again, the NFL is a league that lacks patience, especially with QBs.
No. 20 Chicago Bears: WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
The forgotten fourth WR in this draft class, Bateman is an excellent route runner and will be a good contributor for whatever team he ends up on. The Bears have pretty much no viable options at the wide receiver position, especially with Allen Robinson entering free agency, so even if Bateman isn’t available (a lot of mocks have him going to New England), the Bears would be wise to try to draft someone for whoever ends up under center to throw to.
No. 21 Indianapolis Colts: OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State
The Colts are another interesting team to project, because they could go offensive line, corner, wide receiver, or pass rusher. Idianapolis doesn’t have a lot of major holes on its roster, but it does have quite a few minor ones. For example, its starting left tackle from this past season, Anthony Castonzo, retired, and while the Colts’ right tackle from last year, Braden Smith, could easily slide over to fill that position, that still leaves the team with a hole at the tackle position. Free agency is certainly an option, but let’s assume they go for Radunz to try to give Carson Wentz some stability on the line for the next couple years.
No. 22 Tennessee Titans: DT Christian Barmore, Alabama
The first interior lineman to go off the board, Barmore is by far the best. ‘Bama is a defensive lineman machine, with guys like Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, Quinnen Williams and Dalvin Tomlinson all rising out of the Crimson Tide to make a big splash in the NFL. Barmore will likely be a day-one starter for the Titans, as they have only Jeffery Simmons as a quality starter returning for this season.
No. 23 New York Jets: CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
Jaycee Horn is the son of former Saints receiver Joe Horn, and he looks to be just as talented as his old man. He only allowed eight catches on 24 targets playing in the SEC in 2020 according to PFF, and he gets to play under one of the best defensive coaches in the league in Robert Saleh.
No. 24 Pittsburgh Steelers: OT Jalen Mayfield, Michigan
Mayfield can slide in Alejandro Villanueva’s spot at left tackle. The former Wolverine had to face some of the best defensive lineman in college football in 2019 playing in the Big Ten (Chase Young, Yetur Gross-Matos, Julian Okwara, etc.), and while Villanueva struggled, he showed great improvement in 2020 and has the size to be a very productive tackle at the NFL level.
No. 25 Jacksonville Jaguars: LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah
Speed is becoming the most important thing at every position in football, and Owusu-Koramoah is one of the fastest linebackers in this draft class. He’s a versatile defender, and that’s something the Jaguars desperately need if they’re going to compete anytime soon.
No. 26 Cleveland Browns: CB Greg Newsome II, Northwestern
The Browns could also go safety or linebacker here, but considering they drafted LSU safety Grant Delpit last year in the second round, and Cleveland could go linebacker in the second round, I think the Browns try to draft someone to line up with cornerbacks Greedy Williams and Denzel Ward on the defensive side of the ball. Cleveland’s secondary was absolutely torn apart by injuries last year, and Newsome provides some depth. Sounds kind of weird to draft for depth in the first round, but the Browns have an incredibly deep roster with very few holes.
No. 27 Baltimore Ravens: WR Rondale Moore, Purdue
The Ravens need to replace Orlando Brown, assuming the former Sooner stays true to his trade request, but Moore fills another need the Ravens seem to always be trying to figure out at the receiver position. Quarterback and 2019’s MVP Lamar Jackson needs guys who can not only get open, but haul in some contested catches. Moore is more of a slot guy, but his speed next to Marquise Brown would be deadly.
No. 28 New Orleans Saints: Safety, Trevon Moehrig, TCU
New Orleans’ salary-cap struggles are very well-known, and despite Saints fans’ insistence that they can Houdini their way out of them like they seem to do every year, this year looks a little different. The team will have to probably let its starting safety Marcus Williams walk in free agency, leaving a very big hole at an important position. Moehrig can step in and fill that role—he has a similar game to Williams in that he’s excellent in the pass game, with Moehrig leading all safeties in pass breakups in the past two years.
No. 29 Green Bay Packers: WR Kadarius Toney, Florida
Are the Packers finally going to give Aaron Rodgers a first-round pick at a skills position? Probably not, because it’s the Packers, Green Bay will probably end up doing something weird like drafting another pass rusher, but Toney would be a welcome addition to line up in the slot. His ability to make people miss in the open field is really impressive, and the Packers haven’t had a guy like that in… well, what seems like forever.
No. 30 Buffalo Bills: OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State
Another team with a pretty complete roster, the Bills are a tricky side to pick for, too. Buffalo does have two free agents at the right tackle position though, and Jenkins can immediately step in and protect quarterback Josh Allen.
No. 31 Kansas City Chiefs: LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa
Zaven Collins is coming off an elite season at Tulsa where he won the Bronko Nagurski Award, given to the nation’s best defensive player. He racked up 54 tackles, four sacks, two forced fumbles and four interceptions. The Chiefs would love to jump all over a guy like that, especially when they can fill a hole at the middle linebacker position.
No. 32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: EDGE Azeez Ojulari, Georgia
Finally, the pick we’ve all been waiting for. The Bucs have a lot of questions to answer before the draft, so this pick could change a lot between now and then. They could go tackle if they release Donovan Smith, they could go linebacker to try to replace Lavonte David if he leaves, they could go interior lineman to replace Ndamukong Suh, or they could go running back to try to replace Leonard Fournette. But, you can never, ever, ever, have enough pass rushers. Even if Tampa Bay manages to retain Shaq Barrett’s services, Ojulari gives the Bucs another option to get after opposing QBs, an incredibly important part of Todd Bowles’ defensive scheme. If Ojulari falls all the way down here, the Bucs would be incredibly lucky.
Support local journalism in these crazy days. Our small but mighty team is working tirelessly to bring you up to the minute news on how Coronavirus is affecting Tampa and surrounding areas. Please consider making a one time or monthly donation to help support our staff. Every little bit helps.
Subscribe to our newsletter and follow @cl_tampabay on Twitter.
