Amongst Florida Republicans, Jeb Bush stands as their modern day Ronald Reagan. And though so called "Reagan conservatives" sometimes behave in ways today that the Gipper never did (such as the current GOP obsession with never raising taxes, despite the fact that Reagan did so both as Governor of California and as President), the powers of Jeb's persuasion will be put to the test in the next few weeks as his choice for Governor, Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, is in serious trouble in his race against Rick Scott.
On Monday, Bush will travel for what is being billed as a "statewide fly around" with McCollum, on the first day of early voting throughout the Sunshine State. McCollum needs the help.
That's because on Wednesday, the Secretary of State's office, representing the state (and in a way, McCollum) declined to appeal a ruling that allows Scott to bust the state's $24.9 million spending gap. That means that he won't be able to get a dollar for dollar match for every dollar that Scott spends above that cap, which the Attorney General desperately was hoping for to stay competitive. Scott went to court to challenge the rule. He was denied the first time, but won on an appeal at the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals to stop the "millionaire's provision."
Meanwhile, on Wednesday a number of self described social conservatives, both in Florida and nationally, came out in support of McCollum, including Phyllis Schlafly and Gary Bauer.
But if you believe most of the reputable polls that have been released in recent weeks, none of those endorsements mean a damn to the rank and file of statewide Republicans, who continue to give Scott a double digit lead.
One outlier, according to Adam Smith with the St. Pete Times, is a private poll that shows McCollum in a statistical tie:
n Aug. 1-3 poll of 600 tightly screened likely GOP primary voters by Schroth, Eldon & Associates for private business clients shows Scott with 43 percent and McCollum with 40 percent — within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
"The collapse of Scott’s lead accompanies a dramatic rise in his negative ratings, which are now roughly in line with McCollum’s," the pollster said in a memo:
On Wednesday, the Secretary of State's office said they woudl not appeal a court ruling that stuck down the state's "millionaire's provision" which would give McCollum state money to match every dollar that his well financed gubernatorial opponent, Rick Scott, spent above the $24.9 million spending cap.
So how important is it for Jeb Bush to have Bill McCollum elected? We'll soon find out. McCollum is certainly a socially conservative Republican, and very much part of the establishment that Bush belongs to. Interestingly, the former Florida Governor was in Kentucky earlier this week campaigning for Kentucky's likely next U.S. Senator, Republican Rand Paul.
Bush has also been among the handful of prominent Republicans who has been critical of the loving embrace seemingly the entire GOP has with Arizona's controversial anti illegal-immigration bill. Bush of course is married to a Mexican woman and like his brother, the former President, has always shown a sensitivity towards Latinos that stands out all the more because so many others in the party continue to go to the other side of the issue, with now John McCain talking seriously about repealing the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, which says that any child born in this country has automatic citizenship.
Bush is a private citizen, so his words perhaps don't carry that much water with his base. They really haven't on the immigration.
The former Governor made news recently when he declared (yet again) that he would not be a candidate for the 2012 Republican nomination for President.
This article appears in Aug 5-11, 2010.