After nearly 90 minutes of not so scintillating rhetoric from various local Democrats, former Republican Governor Charlie Crist took to the stage at the Tampa Convention Center last Saturday night, the keynote speaker for the Hillsborough County Democratic Party’s Kennedy King Dinner.
It was the biggest Democratic Party event for Crist since he switched from independent last December. Looking out at a crowd of more than 300, Crist paraphrased David Byrne and the Talking Heads, circa 1979.
“So you may wonder. How did I get here?”
Before the audience could shout out an opinion, Crist delivered the punchline.
“Well, Carol drove me,” he deadpanned. (Carol is his wife, Carol Rome.)
Crist's political metamorphosis is still ongoing. He eschewed any talk of a potential gubernatorial candidacy, instead speaking in general terms of why the Democratic Party better represents his political philosophy these days.
“It’s not about any one individual, it’s about all of us,” he said at the climax of his stunningly short seven-and-a-half-minute address. “It’s about teachers, it’s about firefighters, it’s about law enforcement officers, it’s about blacks, it’s about whites, it’s about gays, it’s about straights,” he said as the applause began rolling in. “It’s about wherever you came from, you’re welcome to this party. This is the big tent party. This is the people’s party. This is what Florida is all about. I’ve seen it, I know it, I feel it. So let’s go get it!”
But unfortunately for Democrats throughout the state who have been lusting to take down Rick Scott, no one — with the exception of former state Senator Nan Rich — has taken the plunge and declared candidacy for 2014.
A few high-profile Tampa Democrats who usually would have been found at the Kennedy King Dinner were AWOL on Saturday. One of them was Susan Smith, head of the Democratic Progressive Caucus, who simply doesn’t think Crist can win in 2014. “I think there will be a very difficult time getting Democratic activists to work for Charlie Crist. Not only that, but a Charlie Crist candidacy will motivate lukewarm Republicans into working [for] and supporting Rick Scott.”
Former Tampa Congressman Jim Davis was another no-show at the annual shindig, the year’s biggest event for the Hillsborough County Democratic Executive Committee. The 2006 Democratic gubernatorial nominee lost to Crist that year, and when he spoke to CL last week he didn’t sound like he’d gotten over it — or the possibility that Crist could be the party’s standard-bearer — just yet. “I think he’s going to be held to a higher standard than before,” said the longtime politico, who’s now a lobbyist with the Tampa law firm of Holland and Knight.
Davis is expending his political energies on recruiting another potential gubernatorial candidate: 70-year-old U.S. Senator Bill Nelson.
Nelson, having just been re-elected, can wait longer to announce than any other candidate, Davis pointed out. He went on to list arguments for a Nelson candidacy: He’s well-known, has won a number of statewide elections, could be competitive in fundraising against Scott’s mega-millions, and is a trusted brand in a party that lacks candidates of stature. “I think you need someone who knows the state, who cares about the state, to successfully govern,” Davis adds.
Other Democrats follow suit, envisioning a Lawton Chiles scenario: Nelson leaving the Beltway to ride off into the sunset, or rather the Sunshine State, uniting a party desperate to taste power in Tallahassee.
But there’s a nagging little question. Does Nelson even want this gig?
Speculation began in earnest earlier this year, after the initial rush of excitement over a Crist candidacy began to subside. On April 25, the D.C.-based political paper Roll Call reported that the senator was considering a candidacy. “I’d say that’s true, that he’s considering it,” spokesman Dan McLaughlin told the publication. “But — and as he’s said a number of times — he presently doesn’t have any intention of running. He’s got a job to do as a senator.”
Nelson seemingly put the rumors to rest a couple of days later during an appearance on MSNBC, when he told anchor Chris Jansing, “Look I have no plans to run for governor. I love this job of senator, except that I am very, very frustrated, as we have discussed this morning, that we can’t get anything done because you can’t get people together to build consensus.”
He went on to say that while similar frustrations (as well as age) have prompted a number of his Democratic colleagues (Carl Levin, Tom Harkin, Max Baucus) to opt out of running for re-election, he’s in it for the long haul. “I feel like I’m just getting cranked up. I’m going to give it everything I have and try to bring people together.” He then talked about the model of comity that is the Aging Committee, which he presides over with Maine’s Susan Collins. “The two of us run the committee together. And that’s the way the Senate ought to be run.”
That would seem to be definitive, but it probably isn’t. Or as Democratic strategist Screven Watson puts it, Nelson said no, “but he didn’t say hell no. There’s a difference.”
One wonders if the 70-year-old Nelson (who would be 72 on Election Day in 2014) has the stamina, not to mention the proverbial “fire in the belly” to want to become an executive at this juncture in his career. But some Floridians have starry looks in their eyes when contemplating his entry into the race. Tampa Democratic consultant Anna Cruz says a Nelson candidacy would be “amazing.”
“It would be a great eight years for him to really leave a legacy behind,” adding that “Florida needs a statesman — or stateswoman — in the governor’s mansion.”
And what about the women who are running — or may be running?
Although frequently overlooked in stories about potential candidates, Broward County’s Nan Rich so far is the only actual candidate, having declared in April of last year. The 71-year-old New York City-born former state legislator has been working it for months, making frequent appearances in the Tampa Bay area to get her name recognition up and her message out (for more on Rich, read our profile posted earlier this week).
But the woman still unaccounted for in the gubernatorial derby is Alex Sink, former Chief Financial Officer and the party’s Democratic nominee in 2010, when she came very close to beating Rick Scott despite having been outspent by tens of millions of dollars.
As with Charlie Crist, opinions about whether Sink should get into the race are as varied as the people you talk to, and have been ever since her narrow loss to Scott. The consensus among most Democrats is that she would undoubtedly be a stronger candidate than four years ago, which is sort of damning with faint praise. Many a political columnist has also gone into heavy psychology mode since the death of her husband Bill McBride late last year, wondering whether that might make her more or less eager to get involved in a full-fledged campaign. Sink still isn’t saying anything, but did tell the Times’ Sue Carlton that she would back Nelson if he got into the race.
“I think she could be a strong, viable candidate,” says Susan Smith, chair of the Florida Democratic Caucus, who is supporting Rich right now.
“I still believe that Alex Sink will run, and I believe she’ll be bigger, better and stronger this time and that she’ll win the race,” says Tampa Representative Janet Cruz. “I think she may have learned by a few mistakes, or realized there were things that could have happened differently. She won’t make those mistakes again.”
On Saturday night Sink told CL that she will make her decision by mid-summer.
One thing that seems to be haunting Democrats is Rick Scott’s financial largesse. The former health care executive spent $73 million to win the governor’s mansion last time around, and since the election he’s raised over $10 million through his PAC Let’s Get to Work.
Democratic strategist Steve Schale says he’s less worried about money than some in his party. “I do think that we’ll have a strong statewide nominee who’s going to have the ability to raise significant resources. Florida is just too important for a lot of people for that not to be the case.”
Could it be possible that none of the Big Three will enter the race? What then? Even the most passionate Democrats acknowledge there is a dearth in their “bench,” though there is an up-and-coming group of new leaders — mayors from some of the state’s biggest cities, such as Orlando’s Buddy Dyer, Jacksonville’s Alvin Brown and yes, Tampa’s Bob Buckhorn.
But Dyer has already declared he’s not interested in running. And both Brown and Buckhorn are still in the middle of their first terms in office.
Speaking before the Greater Tampa Chamber of Commerce in late March, Buckhorn cracked that “it depends upon what Alex does” when asked if he was considering a run for Tallahassee, as Sink watched from the head table just a short distance away.
He later went on to say he might be open to running in 2018, but only if he’s still in good stead in his “dream job.”
Last Friday Governor Scott finished his “Teacher Pay Raise Pep Rally Tour” by making an appearance at Alexander Elementary in South Tampa. Scott was successful in getting the Legislature to okay adding $480 million to the state budget for one-time $2,500 bonuses to all public school teachers, though that money now won’t be distributed until 2014, with questions still uncertain about who will actually qualify for the checks. (The Legislature wants to distribute them in a merit-based procedure. Scott has argued otherwise, but as with Medicaid expansion, hasn’t appeared to be arguing too hard about it.)
Screven Watson thinks it’s okay that the Dems don’t have anybody in the race save Nan Rich just yet. “The Democrats at some point are going to want to know, who cares enough to be their nominee? If Bill’s playing footsies with it, and Alex is playing footsies with it, and Charlie’s playing footsies with it, at some point, the Democrats are going to want somebody to stand up and say, ‘Look. I want this thing, and I’m ready to take on this governor.’”
Still, with an incumbent governor whose poll ratings haven’t escaped the 30s for a couple of years, the reluctance to engage is interesting.
For strategist Anna Cruz, it ‘s very simply about the fate of the Democratic Party in Florida. “If we don’t win in 2014, we can hang it up.”
This article appears in May 16-22, 2013.