Although even local Democrats are jazzed in Tampa that the 2012 Republican National Convention is coming to the St. Pete Times Forum, that might be the only thing they're excited about looking ahead to this November.
In another post we have up today, we look at the various competitive Cabinet races in the state, which frankly, most Floridians haven't. We'd say it's far too early (and too close) to read anything on most of those races now.
But what about nationally? The trend for months has been that the Republicans are going to clean up in November. Not too long ago, House Minority Leader John Boehner boasted on NPR that "100 Congressional seats" were in play. Considering that the Republicans need 41 to replace Nancy Pelosi as House Speaker, that's pretty boastful talk. But the numbers look pretty good this spring for a better fall for the GOP than at any time since they re–elected George W. Bush and got Mel Martinez into the Senate back in 2004.
A Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll published Wednesday afternoon provides fresh fodder for the GOP to feel good about their chances come this November. The lead story in Thursday's Journal goes to the heart of the matter in the 2nd and 3rd paragraphs:
The findings suggest that public opinion has hardened in advance of the 2010 elections, making it tougher for Democrats to translate their legislative successes, or a tentatively improving U.S. economy, into gains among voters.
Republicans have reassembled their coalition by reconnecting with independents, seniors, blue-collar voters, suburban women and small town and rural voters—all of whom had moved away from the party in the 2006 elections, in which Republicans lost control of the House. Those voter groups now favor GOP control of Congress.
Since the Democrats passed their health care reform bill back in March, they and their supporters have stressed the line that once the public understands what's in the bill, support will increase for it.
It hasn't happened yet, and whether that strain of thought will turn around during the summer is an extremely dubious notion, at least from today's vantage point. It's only anecdotal, but just like we heard in similar type of trend stories at this time in verse in 2006 and 2008 about longtime Republicans repulsed by Tom Delay, Jack Abramoff and the Iraq war, those types of quips are now coming from lifelong Democrats saying they want to vote for the GOP this fall – not necessarily because they like the Republican Party – but simply as a protest vote against how the country feels about itself today.
Don't believe that? When the public is asked if they support the Republican Party "very positively" or "somewhat positively", the number comes out to 30%. When asked that about Democrats, it's 37%. Yet every other part of the poll indicates that the public – in particular independents – will vote GOP this fall, whereas many of those same voters went Democratic in 2006 and 2008.
Independents in the poll favor the Republicans, 38% to 30%. At a similar time in 2006, Democrats were favored by indies 40% to 24%.
This article appears in May 13-19, 2010.