The only Tampa City Council race featuring robust attacks turns out to be in the Mary Mulhern-Shawn Harrison district.
Harrison went up with broadcast television over the weekend, showing up on Saturday and Sunday morning news shows with a strong tax-cutting and spending limits message. The ads are nicely shot, but you have to question the wisdom of buying expensive broadcast (which hits not only non-voters outside of Tampa in Hillsborough but about eight or nine other counties) in a low-turnout race that would seem to call for spending money on getting out the vote and targeted direct mail.
Then again, Harrison has a great fundraising advantage over Mulhern and might be able to afford such a luxury. I also got a robo-call on Harrison's behalf from former Republican state Rep. Sandy Murman, who lost a primary race for the state Senate to Ronda Storms. Murman's recorded voice likewise touted Harrison the Taxcutter.
Meanwhile, over at Team Mulhern, a third e-mail criticizing Harrison has gone out to about 1,000 supporters, citing Harrison's opposition to the new stormwater tax instituted by Mayor Pam Iorio to resolve flooding problems, mostly in south and east Tampa. Mulhern campaign manager Mitch Kates says his candidate's first direct mail brochure will hit mailboxes starting Tuesday and Wednesday, with 2-3 more to follow through the weekend.
I still wouldn't put a lot of money on Harrison losing, given his financial advantage, but consider that early voting in South Tampa (where Mulhern lives and likely will run strongest) accounts for half of all of the votes cast in the city so far. Turnout in Harrison's New Tampa neighborhoods so far accounts for just 10 percent of the early votes.
Given all that, here is where I see the race standing:
Newspaper endorsements — They don't count for much, but Advantage Mulhern for winning both of them
Money — Advantage Harrison
Message — So far, Advantage Harrison. Mulhern's e-mail'ed attacks got only some blog interest and haven't been seen by the majority of voters. All that could change in the upcoming week. Plus, with a tax-weary public, Harrison is staying on message about cutting property taxes.
GOTV (Get Out The Vote) — this is crucial in a small turnout race, and who is ahead here will only be seen in the upcoming 7 days.
(And, as always, the disclaimers in this race: Harrison is a former political consulting client of mine. Mulhern used to be Creative Loafing's arts critic. And I've done marketing work with her husband during my consulting days. How's that for conflicted, and for transparency?)
This article appears in Feb 21-27, 2007.