On April 18, Democratic candidate for governor Jim Davis gave a speech in a bingo hall in Hawthorne. It is a small town about 20 minutes south of Alachua, the home of his opponent, Rod Smith. Differing accounts put the crowd at 75 to100 people.
The Democratic frontrunner's Hawthorne stop got little media attention. It was part of a tour of rural North Florida in which he announced the endorsements of 81 public officials and grassroots supporters in Smith's own backyard. Yet the Tampa Tribune's account was headlined, "Democratic hopefuls still little known."
Fast forward to Memorial Day in Tampa. This time it was Smith invading Davis' turf. The state senator attended a party put together by a pair of suburban housewives-turned-activists and attended by more than 100 curious Democrats.
You would have thought it was the Second Coming.
The St. Petersburg Times had three reporters on hand. Two filed print stories; one blogged his account. WMNF's Mitch Perry had his microphone in hand. The Tribune sent only one scribe, who filed a story, but columnist Dan Ruth would follow up with his own take on Smith's triumph a few days later.
The newspaper stories fed into the growing buzz that Smith is making a real race out of the Democratic primary. That he is more charismatic than Davis, a better speaker. That his fundraising is starting to eclipse Davis'. That he's electable. He can win. We have a horse race!
It's no surprise mainstream reporters don't want to knock Smith down quite yet. This race is now a better story. But so far the treatment of Smith has been almost entirely unquestioning. Where, for instance, is the scrutiny of his newly announced general campaign chairman, Chris Korge? Korge is a powerful and controversial Miami lobbyist who was linked to, but not indicted in, an investigation into corruption at the Miami airport just two years ago.
Still, a troubling truth remains for Davis' hopes to be governor, and it is one that the Times' Adam C. Smith gets credit for pointing out first. In a 1A assessment a few weeks ago headlined "Jim Davis, don't look behind you," Smith accurately listed myriad reasons why the state senator is threatening Davis' "mantle of inevitability." The Tampa congressman didn't put Rod Smith away early in the race, and now he must contend with the growing challenge.
Smith's Memorial Day appearance at Francine Simmons' home was a good demonstration of his appeal. His speaking style is electric — part standup comedian, part Southern preacher. In his speech, his voice rose and his rhythm accelerated until, near the end, he was practically shouting at the crowd.
Simmons is a Republican who turned Democratic DFA/Moveon activist over her opposition to the war in Iraq, and her home was packed to the rafters with grassroots Democrats. Smith won many of them over, and he clearly won the media war.
Far more Democrats who have a preference, however, say they'll vote for Davis, according to polls. Davis still has a slight money lead, although that is shrinking as Smith has accelerated his fundraising in the past two months. And Smith is winning the battle for labor support.
So where does this race really stand?
To many experienced Democratic operatives, Davis' performance has been disappointing. His style is less compelling, to be charitable. Behind his back, they're lumping him with other recent past Democratic gubernatorial candidates who weren't charismatic. "MacKay, McBride, McDavis" is their insider joke. They welcome Davis' first moves to attack Smith's anti-labor voting record that came last week as the two vied for the AFSCME union endorsement.
Neither candidate is going to have a ton of money for the crucial television buys before the September primary. At best, watch their commercials go up on cable TV statewide three weeks out, and hit selected Democratic markets with broadcast buys in the last seven to 10 days.
The battleground is South Florida. Smith has scored the endorsement of Miami area congressman Kendrick Meek, a dogged political worker. The key counties — Broward and Palm Beach — are up for grabs.
Think of the race — as one Democratic insider put it to me — as the classic tortoise and the hare. Smith's hare may not have enough time or television money to close the gap. Winning over 100 people at a time in a state with more than 4 million Democratic primary voters is not going to get him there. Even with the benefit of stunningly good media.
For Davis, the tortoise, he better hope that September 5 comes as quickly as possible.
Political Whore can be reached by e-mail at wayne.garcia@weeklyplanet.com, by telephone at 813-739-4805 or on our blog at www.blurbex.com.
This article appears in Jun 7-13, 2006.