Justice Prevailing?

The poll, done in March by The Kitchens Group of Orlando, showed Justice with a

17-point lead over Farkas and a 12-point lead over Berfield. For those who hew to the conventional wisdom, those results are a bit tough to swallow.

Even more unbelievable to some political wags was the poll’s assertion

that Farkas is beating Berfield, 30 percent to 20 percent with half of

Republican voters undecided. The CW is that Farkas has taken so many

hits for his ethics (remember, he was one of four legislators who took

a junket to Toronto courtesy of the gambling industry?) that he can’t

possibly beat a better financed, cleaner candidate in Berfield. But The

Ktichens Group poll found that “Kim Berfield is virtually unknown

within this electorate, with hard name identification level at only 16

percent.” Farkas had 47 percent name recognition — but half of it is

negative! That is a stunningly high negative rating, one that means a

certain death for his campaign eventually

For Justice, that is unfortunate, as Berfield gives him a tougher race

than Farkas. His pollster’s one-page memo on the race says the

Republicans’ “hotly contested primary race” will “utlimately benefit

Charlie Justice, who begins the general election race as a strong front

runner.”

That’s probably more spin and wishful

thinking than anything else. Farkas and Berfield will get 5-6 months

of free press coverage to drive their recognition up, while Justice has no race to generate publicity and increase his awareness stats (which the polling memo did not

reveal).

A few caveats regarding this poll: the entire survey was not released by the

campaign, which cited its strategic nature; its sample size (400

likely voters) makes it impossible to draw accurate conclusions about

subsamples in the survey, such as how Republicans view their own

candidates; and its margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percent,

meaning that Justice’s 35 percent-23 percent lead over Berfield could

actually be more like 30 percent to 28 percent.

Now for the poll itself. I was sitting home over the weekend of March

8-11 and got one of these polling telephone calls. It was not a

particularly nasty poll, and it certainly didn’t directly whack Farkas

for being ethically challenged. According to my notes of the survey,

the questions tested voters’ perceptions of school vouchers, the

telephone rate hike bill, stem cell research, oil drilling off the

Florida coast, parental notification for abortions, prescription drug

costs, whether the governor adequately prepared the state for

hurricanes, and how the Legislature handled the Terri Schiavo case. In

a nod to Farkas, the pollster asked if I thought special interest trips

were bribes.

The pollster then read me a brief bio of the candidates. Justices’

outlined what will likely be his campaign back story: He’s “running for

a new direction in Tallahassee;” an educator who is married; passed

three strikes and you’re out legislation; opposed Schiavo intervention;

and “supporters say he is a regular guy, smart and tough enough to

fight for what he believes.”