New poll has Rick Scott up with day to go before primary

I was all set to take the St. Pete Times to task today for Alex Leary's article explaining essentially why the Times' own poll from 8 days ago — you know, the only one published over the past couple of weeks that showed Rick Scott and Jeff Greene winning their respective races? — was so off base (Ipsos counted registered voters vs. likely voters). But a funny little thing happened overnight challenging this idea.

That is,  a new Public Policy Polling survey released overnight now is also predicting a Scott victory, showing the multimillionaire with a 47%-40% lead over Bill McCollum.

However, Quinnipiac has published one last poll as well before tomorrow's election, and they show McCollum up over Scott, 39%-35%.  That would lead one to believe that we may not know the results of this contest until somewhat late into tomorrow evening.

But now back to the Times poll.  There have been a few articles in local and state newspapers over the past week about the "crazy volatile" polls, but again, with the exception of PPP's overnight survey, in fact the Times/Herald poll was the only serious survey that seemed seriously out of whack, to the extent that it seems those paper's editors saw fit to write an article explaining why their numbers and results were so different (for example, nobody, I mean, nobody else is showing that Jeff Greene is leading Kendrick Meek. In fact, PPP shows Meek now kicking Greene's tail, 51%-27%).

Here's the part of Leary's story explaining the "outlier" factor in that poll that showed Jeff Greene winning just 8 days ago:

The main reason the Ipsos poll had such different numbers was it looked at registered voters, while the Mason-Dixon poll narrowed down to "likely voters."

Julia Clark, who conducted the Ipsos poll, said the objective was to take a broad look at issues such as oil drilling and voter sentiment in Florida, and not just focus on the horse races between Meek and Greene, and McCollum and Scott.

But coming so close to the primary, the horse race is what generated attention — giving way to complaints that the poll painted an inaccurate picture or at least was an outlier.

Take the Meek and Greene contest. Greene has outspent Meek by millions on TV, going from unknown to serious challenger in weeks. The Ipsos poll confirmed that.

Look, at the end of the day it's not that big of a deal, but when the powerful Times/Herald machine does come up with a poll that nobody else has, you would think they'd stand by it, since hell, Rick Scott and Jeff Greene could very well end up winning tomorrow night. But it seems like they were feeling a bit of the heat from being out of the mainstream, and wanted to cover their tracks. But really, there are far too many of these things, aren't there?  Polls I mean. Yes, but it's what us political animals have to cling to, especially when you have content to fill!


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