New study shows large % of unlikely voters would choose Obama - but they probably won't vote

The poll says that 60 percent of those surveyed don't pay attention to politics because they don't believe anything is ever achieved - so they may be people who probably never vote. 54 percent call politics "corrupt."


I guess you could call a lot of the folks surveyed "low-information voters." Cynics might just call them normal Americans, but the poll showed that only 39 percent could identify who the vice president is.


However there are two factors in this study that have to alarm Democrats. By a 43-18 percent margin, those surveyed who say they probably won't vote this fall support the president over Mitt Romney.


And two-thirds of the unlikely voters say they voted four years ago, backing Obama by more than 2-1 over John McCain.


"There's this pool of people that Barack Obama doesn't even need to persuade," says David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center, which took the survey. "All he needs to do is find them and identify them and get them to the polls. It's like a treasure chest. But the bad news is that the treasure chest is locked. …


"You've got this overriding sense of bitterness and people who have been beaten down by the economy and the negativity and the lack of trust, and that's the key that Obama can't find. And he's running out of time."


This is why the Team Obama is spending tons of money right now not only running ads trying to tear down Romney, but opening up offices throughout the country (In Florida there have been recent offices opening in Clearwater and New Port Richey).


The survey also says that the Democratic tilt among eligible non-voters is much stronger this year than in comparable surveys taken in 2004 and 2008.


So bad news for the Dems? Yes, but this is just hard statistical proof of what most Democratic strategists have been aware of for awhile. It's the ground game (stupid!). Karl Rove and the GOP executed a state of the art Get Out The Vote campaign in 2004, and the Obama forces took it to a different level in 2008.


Many of those same Obama strategists are trying to reduplicate their efforts this year - and it's undoubtedly harder. The near messianic narrative that Obama supporters felt for their candidate was like nothing Democrats had felt since RFK in 1968. That spirit couldn't be expected to be reproduced, even if the economy was booming.

A new USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll of people who are eligible to vote but probably won't favor Barack Obama's re-election over Mitt Romney by more than a 2-1 margin.

That should be a serious concern for the Obama forces.

An accompanying story written by USA TODAY political reporter Susan Page breaks down the numbers from the poll, which surveyed 800 adults nationwide.

The story/poll confirms the fact that if the Obama forces can successfully register and get their people to the polls in November, they have a good chance of getting the president re-elected. But it won't be easy when the reduction of enthusiasm for Obama is so evident, particularly among some who were so impassioned in their support for him in 2008.

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