All recent polls, including yesterday's St. Pete Times/Bay News 9/Ipsos survey, have Marco Rubio walking away from Charlie Crist in the battle for U.S. Senate with just 8 days left in the race.
But some observers have told CL for weeks that they don't trust those polls, because they say that they and their liberal friends intend to desert Kendrick Meek when it finally comes to voting in the race and will instead support Crist, because, realizing that Meek is hopelessly out of the race, they must finally look deep into their heart and, perhaps holding their nose, scribble in their bubble next to Charlie Crist's name when voting for Senate.
That theory finally gets some legs this morning with the release of a Zogby poll, which shows Charlie Crist down only 6 1/2% to Rubio, 39.6% to 33.3%, with obviously some Meek supporters now backing Crist, because the Miami Democrat is now down to 18% in this survey.
This is potentially big news for the Crist camp. It shows that if there is a way to convince Democrats to leave a sinking ship in Meek, it might be enough to make this race way closer than any of us can anticipate it being.
There also might be a "Bradley Effect" of some sort happening here.
The Bradley effect of course is the theory that people lie to pollsters about supporting a black candidate, and when they actually vote, they don't all vote for said candidate. Some analysts thought this might hurt Barack Obama in 2008, but it really didn't. Some people think it's all b.s., but there are other examples of when this has been the case (and not just regarding Tom Bradley, the former mayor of Los Angeles who polls showed him winning against Republican George Deukmeijian in 1982 in the California governor's race, but who ultimately lost).
Now, although Meek has never expected to do that great in North Florida, home to Dixiecrats who are still registered as Democrats but generally vote "R" in the fall, there are many other Democrats throughout the state who have never totally committed to him or his campaign. We've seen a certain amount immediately flock to Crist this year, which is why the governor has always outpolled the Miami Democrat in surveys. This has led to the drumbeat that climaxed about 10 days ago that Meek should step out of the race.
He won't (and shouldn't) do that, but he doesn't have to drop out for Democratic voters to decide on their own if they stay committed to him, or vote for the most viable candidate - the now independent Charlie Crist.
CL met several people last week waiting in line for the Meek/Bill Clinton event at USF St Pete who said they were undecided in the Senate race, or leaning towards Crist.
Bill Clinton made a terrific pitch for why voters should support Meek, but if Crist were to caucus with the Democrats on some key issues, one could see Democratic voters feeling comfortable about voting for the governor.
The point here is that this Zogby poll, which some may decry as an outlier, may be more accurate than others we've seen in the past few weeks, which have indicated for certain that Rubio would roll over Crist and Meek on November 2.
