The Academy Awards are all about winning, losing and kvetching. We're giving CL readers the chance to partake in all three.
First, the kvetching. Beautiful people, swank outfits, the televised crushing of the hopes and dreams of our most famous citizens: in short, an irresistible opportunity for bitchy remarks. Why not join our live blog and share your snarkiness with the world? Just go to The Daily Loaf (dailyloafblog.com) at 7:30 p.m. on Sun., Feb. 22 and sound off with your fellow film fans.
Second, the winning and losing: This year it's not just for the stars. Log on to CL's movie site (cltampa.com/movies) and click the link for our Oscar contest. Enter your picks for who will win in six major categories and you could be enjoying dinner and a movie on us. All entries must be received by 7:30 p.m. on Sun., Feb. 22.
In order to assist with your research (and your wagers), here's our breakdown of the categories in question.
BEST PICTURE
Nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader, Slumdog Millionaire
Vegas odds: Some wacky numbers (Slumdog is 2-19, Button is 9-2) leave no real favorite in the race for Best Picture. What is clear is that a win by Milk (20-1), Frost/Nixon (30-1) or The Reader (30-1) would be stunning to the gambling community.
Conventional wisdom: Benjamin Button was the early favorite, but soft box office numbers have removed some of the luster. Frost/Nixon and The Reader both feel like also-rans. That leaves Milk, a movie tailor-made for gay-friendly Hollywood, and Slumdog Millionaire, which manages to be both gritty and a crowd-pleaser, often at the same moment.
And the Oscar goes to: Slumdog Millionaire. In these harsh economic times, the world needs a ray of hope, a film that says, "You think you're poor? Check out the slums of Mumbai, India!" Thanks for the pick-me-up, Hollywood.
BEST ACTOR
Nominees: Richard Jenkins, The Visitor; Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon; Sean Penn, Milk; Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Vegas odds: Rourke is even money, with Penn fractionally behind. Early fave Langella has fallen to 8-1, but even that far outpaces dark horses Pitt (20-1) and Jenkins (50-1).
Conventional wisdom: Rourke's work in The Wrestler was among the year's most applauded performances. But he's got a rep as a crazy guy who might not be Academy Award® worthy. Then there's Langella and a potential "lifetime achievement award" win for Frost/Nixon, and Penn and a potential "Suck it Prop 8!" win for Milk.
And the Oscar goes to: Ultimately, Hollywood loves a comeback. The establishment will welcome Mickey Rourke back into the fold, only to watch TMZ cut him to pieces for years to come. Ain't fame a bitch?
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees: Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married; Angelina Jolie, Changeling; Melissa Leo, Frozen River; Meryl Streep, Doubt; Kate Winslet, The Reader
Vegas odds: It's a three-way race, with Oscar all-star Streep (7-2) and newcomer Hathaway (7-2) lagging behind favorite Winslet (1-2). Wins by Jolie (18-1) or Leo (30-1) would be shocking — but quite profitable.
Conventional wisdom: It's Winslet's frickin' time already! This is Kate's sixth Oscar nomination, but the only thing she's taken home are broken dreams. She's already nabbed a Golden Globe for The Reader; can't we put her out of her misery already?
And the Oscar goes to: Except wasn't Kate better in Revolutionary Road? In a shocking development, the Academy's elderly members vote en masse for Meryl Streep, nabbing the actress her third Oscar (and first since 1983's Sophie's Choice).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees: Josh Brolin, Milk; Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt; Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight; Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Vegas odds: Ledger is currently listed as 0-1, which seems like a scam to me. (How can I win zero on a bet of a dollar? This is why gambling is a dead end, kids.) The rest of the field is all 20-1 shots or worse.
Conventional wisdom: Ledger's turn as The Joker was the year's most talked-about performance. Plus, he's dead. That's Oscar gold!
And the Oscar goes to: It's hard to picture the Academy passing up the chance to go all sappy and honor a Dearly Departed Member of Young Hollywood. The choice is made palatable, though, by Ledger having acting chops worthy of all the flattery.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees: Amy Adams, Doubt; Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona; Viola Davis, Doubt; Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Vegas odds: Cruz is smokin' hot at 1-2, but Davis (13-4) and Tomei (5-1) could both douse her sizzle. Henson (16-1) and Adams (14-1) aren't generating much heat at all.
Conventional wisdom: It's madonnas vs. whores as habit-wearing Adams and mother figures Davis and Henson face down stripper Tomei and ménage à trois participant Cruz. This being Hollywood, expect sex appeal to carry the day.
And the Oscar goes to: Cruz basically steals Vicky Cristina Barcelona and has long been an Academy darling. Besides, Tomei already has an Oscar for My Cousin Vinny.
BEST DIRECTOR
Nominees: David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button; Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon; Gus Van Sant, Milk; Stephen Daldry, The Reader; Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Vegas odds: Another clear favorite, with every $10 bet on Doyle netting only $1 profit if he wins. Fincher is still in the running at 5-1. Van Sant (20-1), Howard (20-1) and Daldry (30-1) would all deliver sweet rewards if they paid off.
Conventional wisdom: This is Danny Boyle's award to lose, as Slumdog has emerged as this year's worldwide favorite. His main competition comes from David Fincher, one of Hollywood's best and most respected directors, whose Benjamin Button showed him at the top of his craft.
And the Oscar goes to: Boyle infused Slumdog Millionaire with enough kinetic energy to overcome the film's draining boy-meets-girl-and-loses-her-over-and-over-again narrative — and wins his first Oscar in the process.
Vegas odds numbers from betus.com.
This article appears in Feb 18-24, 2009.