For Florida's 23rd Senate District seat, which longtime Republican incumbent Nancy Detert is vacating, the candidate roster is crowded. That's often the case for an open seat, but this year, much like at the national level, some interesting factors are at play.
The newly redrawn district covers mostly the greater Sarasota area — it's retiree-rich and thus beet-red to say the least, hence the crowded Republican primary that features some big GOP names (State Rep. Greg Steube, for example), and it's already become one of the pricer legislative races to date.
But with the Trump card looming heavily over the GOP, the two Democrats in the race may have a better shot despite Dem voters being outnumbered there 44 to 33 percent.
So thinks Frank Alcock, one of the two Democrats running.
During a recent lunchtime chat, Alcock, who faces Frank Cirillo in the August 30 primary, told CL he thinks he could could easily win this seat for a few reasons: One, his resume. Two, the nasty five-way Republican primary where the candidates will spend thousands beating each other up all the way through August, thereby stoking cynicism among voters for whoever makes it past the GOP primary. Three: Trump is at the top of the ticket in November.
Alcock, a professor at New College in Sarasota and a former policy analyst for the US Department of Energy, said clenching a victory in November would obviously be no cakewalk for any Democrat, but with everything at stake in the state, a State Senate run makes more sense than a run for the significantly more conservative State House.
“While I could win in the House and become a politician, I don't want to just be a politician. I know that the Senate level is where I can really make a difference in my home state,” he said.
Though the Democratic primary isn't crowded like the Republican side, Alcock still has to make the case to voters that he's more suited for the Florida Senate than Cirillo, a recent USF grad who's just 21.
While no one can predict the the impact of the national race on local Sarasota politics, the district is likely in for a rough primary season. With five candidates on the Republican ticket, that makes for one of the most contentious races for a State Senate seat in Florida. With this multitude of politicos passing endorsements left and right, there’s no telling how bloody the trail will be for whoever happens to make it out of the Republican primary.
For instance, former Sarasota County Commissioner Nora Patterson was the first was the first to qualify (and by petition) for the August primary, but Steube leads the pack in campaign funds. Despite this, candidate Doug Holder continues to be the most reported on candidate and continues to garner big time endorsements, including one from the Florida Chamber. Plus, the presence of Rep. Ray Pilon and Sarasota businessman Rick Levine could help make for a long and rather confusing race for Sarasota Republicans.
Could the outcome of the race impact politics in Florida as a whole?
That's also unclear.
Currently, the Florida Senate is stacked against Democrats 26 to 14, and Democrats recognize that 2016 is a year to increase their ranks in that chamber, as it has been for years. But even if there's not much of a chance Democrats can win back a majority, many hope that boosting their presence in Tallahassee can help influence the types of discussions that take place at the Capitol.
This article appears in Jul 7-14, 2016.