Poll suggests Election Day tailwinds for Rick Kriseman...or does it?

Don't worry, this is almost over.

click to enlarge Poll suggests Election Day tailwinds for Rick Kriseman...or does it?
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The most expensive local election in St. Pete history is about to come to a close, and registered voters throughout the city can look forward to an end to the cardboard detritus that lands daily in their mailboxes. 

Come Tuesday at 7 p.m., polls will close and the final vote tally will ensue.

While polling has been somewhat sparse in the wake of the six-way August primary shook out in Kriseman's favor by some 70 votes, it has shown a somewhat steady trajectory in incumbent Mayor Rick Kriseman's favor.

The latest poll, a St. Petersburg Polls survey the FloridaPolitics.com commissioned, suggests the strongest lead yet for Kriseman, who trailed his rival, former Mayor Rick Baker, all summer and still came out on top (albeit by a fraction of a percentage point).

The poll, conducted over Nov. 4 and Nov. 5, shows Kriseman almost two points ahead of his opponent; either having 47.5 to 45.6 percent, respectively.

It surveyed 939 registered voters in St. Pete who either already weighed in via mail ballot or early voting or had planned on voting Tuesday.

Kriseman had an edge among women, people under 50 and African-American voters — that last group being the demographic observers see as crucial for winning the election. Of the 189 responses from black voters, 49.2 percent said they voted or were planning to vote for Kriseman. Some 32.8 percent said Baker had their vote. And 18 percent said they were still unsure.

In other words, the poll suggests it's still anyone's game.

To add to the suspense, it's unclear how accurate the polling really is. While St. Pete Polls survey results have often closely mirrored election outcomes, polling ahead of the primary suggested Baker was well ahead of Kriseman and was even within striking distance of winning enough votes to avoid a runoff. That, of course, didn't happen.

Needless to say, neither candidate is taking any chances. Both are campaigning hard in the race's final hours.

The survey also asked about City Council candidates. 

In St. Pete's open District 2 race, Brandi Gabbard appears to have a substantial lead over Barclay Harless 46.9 to 29.3 percent.

In the Dist. 4 race, St. Pete City Council Chair Darden Rice is leading challenger Jerick Johnston (58.4 to 22.9 percent).

As for the Dist. 6 race, which has become somewhat of a proxy race for the mayoral election, Gina Driscoll has 44.7 percent to Justin Bean's 32 percent.

Polls close Tuesday at 7 p.m.

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