With a high number of delegates at stake in the March Florida primary, the state is preparing for a battle royalé between current frontrunner Donald “I'll say what the hell I want” Trump, Florida Senator and new establishment favorite Marco “fluent in robo-Español” Rubio and Texas bad boy Senator Ted “god has my back” Cruz.
After all, the stakes are high in the Sunshine State's, where 99 delegates are, as Swedish pop group ABBA once put it, winner-take-all.
A Quinnipiac University poll shows Trump well out in front with 44 percent of likely Republican voters giving him a nod. Rubio is swimming around like a lost grouper with 28 percent and Ted Cruz flounders even further behind, with 12 percent. In case you actually care about the other guys still running, they round out the party's top five with Ohio Governor Joen Kasich at seven percent and Dr. Ben Carson at a whopping four percent.
“Florida is the single biggest prize of the primary season because it is the largest state to allocate its delegates on a winner-take-all basis. If Sen. Rubio can’t win in his own home state, it is difficult to see how he can win elsewhere,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll, in a written statement on the University's website.
Even though it looks like nothing can stop the Trumpster from riding off into a gulf sunset sunset with all the Florida delegates in his back pocket, there is a word of warning: only registered Republicans can vote in the state's primary, so whether all the Don’s vocal supporters have actually registered to vote remains to be seen.
However, like his ego, the size of Trump's lead is impressive.
“He leads in every age group by 9 to 19 percentage points. He does better among men than among women and, despite being a New York multi-billionaire, he leads among those who identify with the Tea Party,” Brown added.
Among Floridians, about a third—31 percent—think jobs and the economy are the most important issue. Eighteen percent are worried nasty terrorists are coming to get us and 14 percent think America is at capacity; immigration is their top concern.
All of which only adds to one thing: more Trump support.
“A third of likely primary voters say a candidate who is a strong leader is key to their choice and 66 percent of them support Trump,” said Brown.
It appears nothing can stop Trump from winning Florida, but could the result be Waterloo for the Rubio campaign and will it be time to say Mamma Mia for Ted Cruz?
The poll of 705 likely Florida Republican primary voters was taken from Feb.21-Feb. 23 and had a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percent.
One never knows. After all, we have Super Tuesday coming up in five days, which could turn the tables completely.
This article appears in Feb 25 – Mar 2, 2016.