How's this for a political profile in Florida: You're the former head of the state's largest bank who is leading the polls in a campaign for a statewide office. Sounds like a Republican, right?
Or how about a man who spent six years studying to become the pastor of a church? Who in 1998 sponsored legislation to make it vehicular homicide to cause the death of an unborn child in a car accident? A socially conservative Republican, correct?
Wrong.
Both are Democrats: Alex Sink, the former president of Bank of America in Florida, and Walter "Skip" Campbell, a South Florida legislator.
The Democrats can't retake the Legislature (blame 10 years of losses and GOP-dominated redistricting) and face a formidable opponent in Republican Charlie Crist for governor. But it would take just two wins to force Republicans to play ball with them on Florida's elected Cabinet, which consists of the attorney general, the chief financial officer and the agriculture commissioner, alongside the governor.
Tampa's own Sink has the best shot at landing one of those Cabinet-level offices. Several polls have put her ahead of both Republican opponents. She credits Floridians' desire to see balance restored in state government.
"Every time I bring up this issue of balance and diversity of opinions, I get a lot of head nods" from the audience, Sink said over the weekend during a long drive from Jacksonville to Tallahassee.
"It is different this time. We've taken some pretty bad losses in the past few elections, but look at the landscape" that now has three of the four Cabinet offices without incumbents, she said. "People understand that it is not good to put all the power in the hands of one party. It is much more of a level playing field."
Sink would beat either Republican challenger, Sen. Tom Lee of Brandon or Rep. Randy Johnson of Celebration, in her quest to be CFO, a poll commissioned by the pro-business Associated Industries of Florida found in late July. There are still a lot of undecideds in either head-to-head (56 percent), but Sink beats Lee by a six-point margin and Johnson by eight, the St. Petersburg Times and Orlando Sentinel reported.
Then there is Campbell, a trial lawyer-turned-legislator who gets to take on two-time statewide loser Bill McCollum, whose lobbying work and ties to Jack Abramoff could prove fatal.
"I think [people in Florida] are in a mood to toss the rascals out," Campbell said from the campaign trail last week. "Two polls that I have seen show that generically they would choose Democrats over Republicans."
The Democrats' longest shot in the Cabinet contests is Eric Copeland, a Miami lawyer. Even though he is but a few points behind incumbent Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson (27-23 in one poll), he has fewer dollars and less name recognition than Sink and Campbell.
He also has chosen to try to redefine the office, from agriculture to the job's lesser-known component as consumer affairs chief.
Copeland acknowledges that he will be at a fundraising disadvantage, but he hopes his consumer message will catch fire in the media. He'll also need quite a bit of help at the top of the ticket.
"We're finally reaping the benefits of the president's bad record in Washington," he said. As for the U.S. Senate race, "Katherine Harris seems to be the gift that keeps on giving."
Another gift is the seeming hibernation of evangelicals who normally pump GOP turnout. There's not been much on the ballot for right-wing Christians to get excited about: their gubernatorial hope, Tom Gallagher, faded badly after ethical and personal revelations that included drug use and infidelity. A planned anti-gay marriage referendum didn't gather enough signatures to qualify for this year's ballot. The situation for Republican Christian organizers is so dire, in fact, that anti-gay marriage crusader John Stemberger wrote in a high-profile freak-out that "Florida is at a moral crossroads."
The biggest problem for the Democrats is how to win the message war. As one pollster has pointed out, there are a lot of Floridians not clued in to any candidate at the Cabinet level. "Other than McCollum, none of the cabinet candidates from either party currently are recognized by more than half of Florida's voters," wrote Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research in his July 19-21 Florida poll. "This is a clear sign that all of these races are volatile and that any outcome is still possible."
Finally, give some credit to new Democratic Party chief, former Congresswoman Karen Thurman. Florida Democrats are more united than they have been in the past, seem to be more organized and have avoided the kind of intra-party ideological fighting demonstrated in Connecticut's Lieberman-Lamont death struggle.
"Four years ago, the state party was almost nonexistent," Sink said when asked about the unsuccessful 2002 gubernatorial campaign of her husband, Bill McBride. "We're seeing a whole different level of service coming out of the state party" today.
FRANKLY NASTY: The nastiest race so far turns out to be the Republican primary race for the Florida Senate in the Tampa-St. Petersburg seat being vacated by Jim Sebesta. Two Pinellas legislators are running, Kim Berfield (a darling of the insurance industry) and Frank Farkas (a darling of the chiropractic, development and gambling industries, for starters).
Last week, automated and recorded phone calls attacked Farkas for his trip to Toronto paid for by gambling interests who wanted to expand their business in Florida. "Frankly, it's an outrage …" is how the call started, a sly rip on his campaign slogan, "Frankly, Farkas." It then instructed voters to ask Farkas about why he accepted the "foreign trip." Farkas, a state representative and chiropractor from St. Petersburg, tap-danced around the ethics of the gift.
Behind the calls was the virtual political arm of the Florida Medical Association, a shadow committee called People for a Better Florida. Farkas and the medical community have been at war for years.
By the weekend, Farkas had his own recorded phone call, blasting Berfield for going negative and questioning why she is being supported by Scientologists.
CONGRESSIONAL DEBATE: The Planet's live talk show, Political Party, will host the Democratic candidates for Congress in District 11 for a debate and forum on Aug. 23. That includes Kathy Castor, Scott Farrell, Al Fox, Lesley "Les" Miller and Michael Steinberg. The 90-minute event will feature questions submitted by you, the Planet's readers. To throw a question into the mix, log onto our blog, Blurbex.com, and look for the posting regarding the congressional candidates' questions.
The debate starts at 7 p.m. at the Palladium Theater in St. Petersburg.
MULTIPLE DISCLOSURES: During my time as a political consultant, I represented Tom Lee in his successful 1996 race for Florida Senate, and I represented candidates who ran against both Berfield and Farkas in their House races. The partner of Planet editor David Warner, Larry Biddle, is director of Internet and direct mail for the Alex Sink for CFO campaign.
Political Whore can be reached by e-mail at wayne.garcia@weeklyplanet.com, by telephone at 813-739-4805 or on our blog at www.blurbex.com.
This article appears in Aug 16-22, 2006.
