The Tampa mayor's race: With Election Day March 1, who's got the momentum?

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The Tampa natives have out-fundraised their opponents by a substantial amount in the race. (Greco, because of his deep connections to business and other sectors of the city, has been particularly successful, raising $90,000 more than Ferlita as of last week, whose totals came in second.) They have also enjoyed the two single biggest public displays of affection in the campaign: the 400 or so who came out to attend Greco's official campaign announcement in late November, and the stunning 800-plus the Ferlita campaign said attended a spaghetti fundraiser at the Sons of Italy Lodge the Sunday before Valentine's Day.

If Ferlita makes it into the runoff, she'll be credited as having smartly played her cards close to the vest by not saying or doing anything remotely edgy. Critics have said that she's been heavy on the platitudes ("partnerships, partnerships, partnerships" is one of her favorite phrases) vs. substantive plans, but local politics is more about personality than policy, which is what Ferlita is banking on to move into the next round.

Of course, when it comes to personality, the septuagenarian Greco, win or lose, will continue to be one of the Cigar City's leading celebrities, even if he's not successful in his quest to be mayor for a fifth four-year term.

But Greco has shown a bit of a glass jaw in this campaign. In South Tampa last week, Ed Turanchik charged him with leaving the city in a trail of debt, referring to the purchase of the old Sun Trust building downtown to use as a new police headquarters in 1996. Turanchik said the city will ultimately pay $72 million to eliminate the debt from that purchase, spending $13 million a year beginning in 2016.

But in these days of concerns about government spending, Greco has been unrepentant, bragging about how everything good in Tampa is essentially because of him — even when he refuses to provide a blueprint for the future, instead invoking the names of Chuck Sykes and David Straz as the men who will help guide his decisions.

Then there are the inappropriate quips, such as comparing a civil riot in the late 1960s to a "panty-raid," and his joking answer to a question about what jobs the candidates would give their opponents in their administrations. Following a consensus at the Young Professionals debate that the teetotaling Thomas Scott would be everyone's choice for designated driver, Greco went on to answer the job question by saying that he'd offer Scott — the only black candidate — the job of "driver."

Greco apologized for the first gaffe, but said he had nothing to apologize for in the latter case, saying that Scott knew it was meant in jest. But some members of the black community weren't so forgiving, saying that the good ol' boy network in Tampa that Greco has always reigned over isn't the same in 2011 — and everybody but the former mayor knows it.

Ella Coffee, Scott's campaign manager, says the comments show Greco is stuck in a generation "that we can't afford to return to," adding, "It may have been a joke and he may not have meant anything by it, but if he feels those type of 'Archie Bunker' jokes are okay in 2011, he is not the person to move Tampa forward."

University of Tampa Professor Scott Paine said that similar concerns about Greco arose in 1995 (when he returned to City Hall after a 21-year interregnum).

He said for those who already like Greco, his gaffes won't change their mind. But based on polls, Paine thinks the former mayor will need more than his current level of 24 percent support to win a runoff. "He's going to need people who haven't decided that they like him," which could cost him big in a one-on-one match up.

But does Greco get it? A campaign aide told CL that he knows better than to try to give the former mayor any advice, saying, "He's on his own. ...he doesn't let us say anything."

Can Buckhorn or Turanchik squeeze into the runoff? Buoyed by a surprising endorsement in the Tampa Tribune, the official voice of the establishment of Tampa, Turanchik began holding a series of events earlier this week to try to get his name and message out to voters of all stripes, but particularly young voters who might most be attracted to his plans for taking Tampa forward (CL also endorsed him last week).

When asked about the distinction that candidates like Ferlita and Greco seem to have over non-natives like Turanchik, longtime community activist and radio commentator Jetie B. Wilds Jr., a Tampa native who has lived for long stretches in Portland, Oregon and suburban Washington D.C. (and who supports Turanchik ), says, "Tampa is a very special place in terms of how it is that we deal with those who are home-grown. There is a tendency not to look at what it is a person is offering for where we want to go, as much as looking at the good ol' boys and good ol' girls. That's probably not so unusual for any community, but it doesn't make it the best way of approaching things."

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