Tuesday night Hurricane Ian track shifts even further south, away from Tampa Bay

Tropical Storm force winds could arrive in the Bay area as early as 8 a.m. Wednesday morning.

click to enlarge According to the 11 p.m. Tuesday update from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Ian is now moving north-northeast at about 10 mph and is roughly 110 miles southwest of Naples. - National Hurricane Center
National Hurricane Center
According to the 11 p.m. Tuesday update from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Ian is now moving north-northeast at about 10 mph and is roughly 110 miles southwest of Naples.
What a difference half-a-day makes.

According to the 11 p.m. Tuesday update from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Ian is now moving north-northeast at about 10 mph and is roughly 110 miles southwest of Naples. It's expected to pass west of the Florida Keys overnight packing maximum sustained winds of  about 120 mph.

As WFTS maniac weatherman and Rule No. 7 guru Denis Phillips points out, the latest track takes Hurricane Ian much farther south. "Landfall is on the border of Charlotte and Lee counties. This greatly reduces the risk of hurricane force winds in the Bay Area," Phillips added.

Still, it's hard to breath any kind of sigh of relief. A hurricane and storm surge warning is still in effect for Tampa Bay as of 11 p.m. on Tuesday night. Tropical Storm force winds could also arrive in the Bay area as early as 8 a.m. Wednesday morning.
Moreover, life threatening storm surge is still expected on the west coast of Florida, with the highest risk happening from the Naples to Sarasota region, according to the NHC. Heavy rainfall is also expected across the state.

Reading the NHC's 11p.m.track, Phillips expects Ian to make landfall as a major hurricane near Punta Gorda at noon or 1 p.m. on Wednesday, then be in Polk County by 8 p.m. "Polk county again is going to see some serious wind out of this," he added. "There will be winds or around 100 mph Wednesday night in Polk County."

By Thursday morning, Phillips expects Ian to be southwest of Daytona and then headed out to the Atlantic Ocean.

"This track is much different than what we were seeing earlier," Phillips said.

He's right. As early as Monday night, NHC director Jamie Rhome expected Ian to slow down and put all of Tampa Bay on its right side before making landfall. “This would be the storm of a lifetime for many Tampa Bay residents,” said Rhome. "With it slowing down, this would be a near worst case approach angle.”

Another update from the NHC is due Wednesday morning around 8 a.m.

About The Author

Ray Roa

Read his 2016 intro letter and disclosures from 2022 and 2021. Ray Roa started freelancing for Creative Loafing Tampa in January 2011 and was hired as music editor in August 2016. He became Editor-In-Chief in August 2019. Past work can be seen at Suburban Apologist, Tampa Bay Times, Consequence of Sound and The...
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