Voters who’ve questioned their options during this presidential election cycle, are not alone. While Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump race for the presidency, there is a growing disconnect between the traditional two parties and the public. More people are choosing to vote with No Party Affiliation (N.P.A.) or for minority parties.
According to a September survey from Pew Research Center, 51% of voters said they are not satisfied with the candidates. We are also experiencing increased partisan apathy among the two parties, with 62% of Republicans and 54% of Democrats surveyed in 2022 expressing “deeply negative” views of the other party.
Ed Benton, a political scientist and professor at The University of South Florida, cites the increasing partisan polarization as a reason why the centrist vote is gaining momentum.
“The candidates today are so far off, in terms that they’re too far to the left, too far to the right,” he told Creative Loafing Tampa Bay
Whether they’re N.P.A., Independent, or vote for other, smaller parties, the voters in the middle are a growing swath of Americans. According to data from Gallup, in 2023 43% of those surveyed identified as Independent voters. And Pew’s data from the same year is similar, showing that the number of voters who are Independent or lean towards one of the two main parties at 35%.
This increasing bloc of voters who don’t identify as Republican or Democrat play a key role in deciding elections, according Benton. “No recent candidate has won the presidency without winning the largest share of the Independent votes,” he added.
National polls show Trump and Harris nearly neck and neck; a recent poll from Marist College shows Harris has at 52% and Trump at 47%. While here in Florida, data from Emerson College from September shows Trump at 50% and Harris at 45%, with 5% undecided or leaning towards another option. There are just under 4 million N.P.A. and minority party voters in Florida who hold the power to influence the election.
Florida is a state with closed primaries, so N.P.A. voters have limited voting power in primary elections, if any, yet the number of voters in Florida who are not affiliated with a party has been increasing since 2017.
A couple years ago on Reddit, the social media platform based around forums and discussions, one user posted to the subreddit r/Florida about the state’s rise in N.P.A. voters. Users, like u/justmesayinganything, said that if it weren't for closed parties, they would vote N.P.A, while users like u/elRobRex said they switch their party preference for primaries. Others cited dissatisfaction in the two parties and distrust in the government as reasons why the vote N.P.A.
Benton believes that in order for both parties to reach the crucial voters in the middle, they will have to change.
“A large array of people are in the political middle and I think they would demand something different, arguing from the center, not a Republican or Democrat perspective,” Benton said. “Both parties are going to have to come up with more acceptable candidates in the future.”
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This article appears in Oct 17-23, 2024.