Don’t worry, that bungalow you’ve been eyeing in Tampa Heights will be on the market soon enough, but right now, according to a new study, there’s probably a boomer in it.
A report released today by real-estate site Zillow suggests that baby boomers (people born between the years of 1944 and 1964) own a massive swath of the country's housing market, and once they all die off, this “Silver Tsunami” will free up a ton of homes across the U.S., especially here in Tampa Bay.
According to the report, 33.2% of homes in the entire Tampa Bay metro area will become available by 2037, which is expected to be the biggest housing turnover the country.
Unsurprisingly, the area within Tampa Bay that will have the most available housing will likely be in the west/central part of Pasco County, which is expected to have a massive 43.4% housing turnover, says Zillow. Greater Seminole City came in second for our region, with a 42.8% turnover, followed by the Palm Harbor area with 41.1%. While still relatively high, Tampa had the lowest housing turnover for the area, with just 28.8%.
Of course, quite a bit of Florida was well-represented in this study. Sumter County, home of the retirement mecca The Villages, is expected to have the highest turnover for a single county, with a whopping 62% housing turnover. Other high turnover areas in Florida include, St. Lucie County (47%), Palm Beach County (46%), Indian River County (46%), and Volusia County (45%).
“Well-known retirement destinations, including Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Tucson, will experience the most housing turnover in the wake of the Silver Tsunami,” says Zillow. “If the number of future retirees choosing to make these places home during their golden years fails to match generations past and local housing demand fades, these areas may end up with excess housing.”
This report comes just days after October's dismal housing report was released, which, essentially stated that Tampa Bay's real-estate inventory has declined dramatically since its peak in 2014. The current median price for a home in Tampa is $221,100, an increase of 5.3% from last year. And, in no coincidence whatsoever, home sales in Tampa have declined for the third month in a row.
In other words, people aren't buying homes like they used to in Tampa Bay, and the homes that are for sale are becoming increasingly overpriced. Of course, maybe that will all change in about 18 years, or so.
“The massive Baby Boomer generation has already begun aging into retirement, and will begin passing away in large numbers in coming decades – releasing a flood of currently owner-occupied homes that could hit the market,” says the study. “That could help end the last few years’ inventory drought, as well as a more fundamental shortage of homes in certain places.”
You can read the full report and its methodology here.