I have a number in my head. 10. It's not a magic number, more like a dreaded number.
I guess it's kind of arbitrary, certainly not based on meticulous statistical analysis, but when it comes to the Rays, the number 10 keeps popping up in my head. As in:
The Rays cannot afford to go 10 games under .500. They are half way there. At 7-12, they are five games below .500, they sit in last place, 6 1/2 games out of first . Yes, it is early in a 162-game season, but it only stays early for so long. And I don't care at what stage the season is, 10 games under .500 is a big, big hole.
It's unlikely the Rays will lose five in a row to reach that dreaded number, but it's conceivable they could go 2-7, making them 9-19. At their current pace, the Rays would be 14-24 nearly a quarter of the way through the campaign.
Manager Joe Maddon is saying all the right things about not panicking, about how things are bound to turn around. And baseball is such a mercurial game, not to mention that the Rays have considerable talent, that's it's tempting not to chalk this up to a slow start that's bound to right itself.
