Tampa Redistricting Analysis

Comprehensive analysis of voter registration, turnout, and estimated demographics for precincts affected by the four proposed redistricting alternatives.

📋 Data Sources & Methodology

Voter Registration: Hillsborough County Supervisor of Elections (January Precinct Summary without Precinct Splits (Hillsborough County SOE, Feb 2026))
2023 Turnout: March 7, 2023 City of Tampa Municipal Election (TurnoutByPrecinctTable.csv)
Demographics: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2022 5-Year Estimates
Precinct Demographics: Area-weighted spatial interpolation from census tract data
Geography: Hillsborough County Voting Precincts & Tampa City Council Districts shapefiles; Census TIGER/Line tract boundaries

Note: Tampa municipal elections are officially non-partisan. Party registration provides context but does not determine ballot access.

⚠️ Demographic Data Caveat

Precinct-level demographics are ESTIMATES derived through area-weighted interpolation. Census data is collected at the tract level, and tract boundaries do not align with precinct boundaries. Demographics are approximated by calculating the area of intersection between each precinct and overlapping census tracts, then weighting tract data accordingly. These estimates assume uniform distribution of population within tracts.

📊 Summary Statistics

Affected Precincts

14,313

Registered Voters

43.7%

Democratic Registration

26.7%

Republican Registration

10.7%

Avg. 2023 Turnout

$68,964

Avg. Median Income (Est.)

📈 Voter Registration & Turnout

👥 Demographics by Precinct (Estimates)

📋 Complete Precinct Data

📝 Redistricting Alternatives

Precinct	District	Voters	Dem %	Rep %	Lean	2023 Turnout	Est. Income	Est. % White	Est. % Black	Est. % Hispanic
141	6	1,303	33.8%	37.6%	Competitive	18.3%	$97,087	78.9%	1.8%	20.6%
151	6	1,368	30.1%	39.3%	Lean R	10.3%	$120,499	80.1%	6.5%	10.3%
169	5	2,395	45.1%	26.3%	Lean D	10.2%	$48,251	64.7%	26.0%	17.2%
207	5	1,656	58.1%	15.9%	Strong D	8.4%	$23,392	31.5%	52.5%	36.2%
249	7	2,333	33.3%	37.5%	Competitive	12.9%	$77,666	77.2%	0.9%	43.1%
250	7	227	31.3%	41.0%	Lean R	8.5%	$96,373	78.4%	8.4%	12.6%
320	6	685	51.8%	17.4%	Strong D	13.8%	$85,391	56.0%	34.0%	23.4%
342	7	2,285	50.9%	17.5%	Strong D	8.0%	$31,459	37.8%	33.8%	39.4%
345	7	2,061	48.0%	20.3%	Strong D	5.6%	$40,556	31.0%	41.7%	47.8%

Alternative 1

Precincts Moved: 3 | Voters Affected: 6,048 | Democrats: 2,653 | Republicans: 1,567 | Avg Turnout: 9.5%

Precinct 151: 6 → 4 (1,368 voters, -9.2pt partisan lean, 10.3% turnout)
Precinct 169: 5 → 6 (2,395 voters, +18.8pt partisan lean, 10.2% turnout)
Precinct 342: 7 → 5 (2,285 voters, +33.4pt partisan lean, 8.0% turnout)

Alternative 2

Precincts Moved: 1 | Voters Affected: 2,061 | Democrats: 989 | Republicans: 419 | Avg Turnout: 5.6%

Precinct 345: 7 → 5 (2,061 voters, +27.7pt partisan lean, 5.6% turnout)

Alternative 3

Precincts Moved: 3 | Voters Affected: 3,245 | Democrats: 1,204 | Republicans: 1,086 | Avg Turnout: 11.7%

Precinct 249: 7 → 6 (2,333 voters, -4.2pt partisan lean, 12.9% turnout)
Precinct 250: 7 → 6 (227 voters, -9.7pt partisan lean, 8.5% turnout)
Precinct 320: 6 → 5 (685 voters, +34.4pt partisan lean, 13.8% turnout)

Alternative 4

Precincts Moved: 3 | Voters Affected: 5,020 | Democrats: 2,392 | Republicans: 1,172 | Avg Turnout: 10.8%

Precinct 141: 6 → 4 (1,303 voters, -3.8pt partisan lean, 18.3% turnout)
Precinct 207: 5 → 6 (1,656 voters, +42.2pt partisan lean, 8.4% turnout)
Precinct 345: 7 → 5 (2,061 voters, +27.7pt partisan lean, 5.6% turnout)

🗳️ Tampa Redistricting Analysis