Last week Tampa Bay braced itself for Harvey, but the storm ultimately trained its wrath on Houston. This week there’s talk of Hurricane Irma, which rapidly developed into a powerful storm Thursday and as of Tuesday was a Category 5 storm aimed at Florida. As of CL's print deadline, where or even if Irma makes landfall is anyone’s guess. This time last September, classes were cancelled and roads closed as Hurricane Hermine approached. It was not the epic storm all had feared, but Tampa and St. Petersburg did flood.
But given that it's been nearly a century since the area's been hit head-on, we may be running out of luck.
The Washington Post has written extensively on the region's vulnerability to storms — especially if a major hurricane, Cat 3 or above, were to strike — and what "500-year flooding" like that which Houston experienced would look like here. Pinellas County, for example would essentially become two islands as flood waters inundated the peninsula.
Experts say it’s likely a matter of when, not if, a massive storm wreaks havoc on Tampa Bay. They warn residents that hurricanes aren’t the only cause for concern. Rising sea levels make low-lying areas all the more susceptible to freshwater flooding from disasters like Harvey.
The hurricane's damage to Houston is the result of a strong storm dumping more than four feet of water on a city that sits only about 50 feet above sea level — approximately the same elevation as Tampa. Near-sea level regions like Tampa Bay are more exposed to compound flooding, a combination of storm surge and hard rain.
The City of Tampa is in a particularly precarious position because high enough water levels and hard enough rain would push water from the bay into the city. Tampa is among the highest-risk cities for coastal flooding in the entire world, said University of Central Florida coastal climate researcher Thomas Wahl, who explained that low standards of flood protection and expansive development in the city’s floodplain are among the factors that spell a potential catastrophe.
Near-sea level regions like Tampa Bay are more exposed to compound flooding, a combination of storm surge and hard rain.
The city’s susceptibility to a flood disaster is no secret, yet developers continue to build real estate and economic powerhouses on floodplains. If a hard enough storm comes, that could all be wiped away.
“If we want to prevent what we are seeing in Houston in Tampa then we need to invest,” said Wahl, “adapt infrastructure, maybe enforce building standards. Avoid building more and more expansive real estate in the flood zone and make sure that critical infrastructure is elevated.”
Regional planners are urging local governments to be more proactive about preventing and preparing for flood disaster. Some municipalities have been more proactive than others.
Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council planner Brady Smith called the City of Tampa “a leader” in developing measures to reduce the city’s vulnerability to the consequences of sea level rise, including flooding. Both Tampa and St. Petersburg were among the first cities to implement preventative measures mandated by the 2015 Peril of Flood law.
Yet a lot of Tampa’s roads and buildings are so old that it’s difficult — and expensive — to secure the city from flooding. “The issue that we have is that a lot of the infrastructure we have in the Tampa region is aging infrastructure,” explained Smith.
Existing efforts are focused on fortifying coastal areas that would fall in the immediate path of a hurricane, but Smith said leaders and emergency planners need to put more focus on securing inland areas threatened by rainfall and freshwater flooding.
“Here’s the thing,” explained Smith, “we’re only factoring in the folks that need to evacuate from the potential storm surge areas. We’re not factoring in the way folks would need to evacuate from the [inland] flood-prone areas.”
Tampa preparedness experts like Chauncia Willis encourage people to plan for disaster by educating themselves and taking advantage of available resources like Alert Tampa, a communication system that notifies residents in the event of an emergency.
But a lot of people don’t realize these potentially lifesaving resources exist.
“It is a little difficult to get people to register for these notification systems…we’re emergency managers, not marketing people.”
The emergency coordinator, who had just finished giving a presentation on emergency preparedness to a community organization, said small steps can prepare people for severe storms. In the event of an approaching storm, Willis recommended securing important documents like deeds and flood insurance information in ziplock bags and assembling an emergency supply kit with at least three days’ worth of necessities.
Tampa’s a sitting duck, but it’s up to leaders to prepare the city by making responsible decisions when investing in infrastructure. And it’s up to residents to prepare by making themselves aware of what to do when the storm finally comes.
This article appears in Aug 24-31, 2017.