Don’t look now, but … the Bucs are only two games out of first place in the NFC South.

One of the teams tied for first place is the Carolina Panthers. This is the same team the Bucs just gave an absolute shellacking to on Sunday afternoon during a 43-13 victory.

Frankly, the game was over by the half, so we’ll focus mostly on that period of play.

In his first game back from a thumb injury, Baker Mayfield took a back seat to the Bucs’ running game. The team ran for close to 150 yards over 30 (yes, 30) carries in the first half. Bucky Irving accounted for most of those yards, with 84 yardsticks on 18 carries. He darted into the end zone a couple of times, as well.

By the end of the game the Buccaneers had 258 total yards of rushing, and Mayfield threw the ball 11 times—a show of force on the ground that hasn’t been seen from the Bucs in a few years.

Defensively, the Bucs still managed to give up their government-mandated touchdown to a tight end (especially on national tight ends day), which accounted for the lone score from Carolina in that first half.

But, Tampa Bay got an interception from Zyon McCollum, who continues to have a stellar 2026 season. He also had a scoop and score on a blocked extra point.

Speaking of scoop and scores, defensive lineman Calijah Kancey had one himself on a strip sack of Panthers QB Bryce Young, returning it for a pick-six. Everyone loves a big-man touchdown, and this one was especially joyous for the Bucs, as they had a massive day in all phases of the game.

Kancey and YaYa Diaby were making life incredibly difficult for Young and the Panthers offense, which has been one of the most explosive groups in football throwing the ball. Last Sunday, however, Tampa Bay was getting constant pressure on the former Alabama man, and ended up with three combined sacks.

Tykee Smith even threw in a pick in garbage time to bring the total turnovers forced number to four.

Now the Bucs are only 2-5. They’re still a team that has played some of the worst football in the league.

The Panthers are a weird team prone to moments where it seems like they just forget they’re playing in the NFL, and divisional matchups can also lead to random results.

Yet for whatever reason, whether it be the Rays’ miraculous run of success this year, or the fact that the weather being so nice places me in a much better mood, there’s not an unrealistic chance in my mind that the Bucs turn this ship around.

Bucky Irving continues to be a force coming out of the backfield. The offensive line is giving him room to run. Baker Mayfield, if not asked to do much, can at least stand back there and occasionally do something fun, like that passing touchdown to Tez Johnson to close out the first half.

And the defense has been… surprisingly solid? The aforementioned McCollum has had a wonderful bounce back season. The defensive line has the talent to at least be an average group, which combined with an over performing secondary could make the unit as a whole pretty good.

They’ve got enough talent to overcome this horrid division, and the Saints lost this week, too. As much as it is every year, it’s a race to the top of the trash heap in the NFC South.

It’s still a long shot, and I’ve more than written them off in previous weeks where they looked awful. But the point still stands: this division is the worst in football, battling it out with the NFC East for the ultimate crappiness title.

And while the Bucs are likely a bad team, so is the rest of the NFC South. It just takes them being the least bad.

Their next matchup, against the Atlanta Falcons at home, is a big one. A victory at Raymond James Stadium would legitimately put Tampa Bay right back in the thick of things. They’ll be tied with the Falcons at 3-5, and the Panthers would at most be a game ahead. But with a Thursday night date with the Green Bay Packers on deck for Carolina, a half game lead would be more likely.

The tough part of Sunday’s game versus Atlanta is that the Falcons, like the Bucs, are coming off of a massive, morale-boosting win. The Falcons managed to upset the undefeated San Francisco 49ers in a close one, bringing their record to 3-4. When Atlanta quarterback Michael Penix, Jr.—a Tampa Bay Technical High School grad—plays the entire game, they are 3-1.

Every game from here on out is a big one, and if the Bucs win this next matchup, Todd Bowles goes from the scorching hot seat of these past few weeks to a moderate 80 degrees with no humidity.

Funny how football works.

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This article appears in Oct. 22 – 28, 2026.