Quinnipiac University has just released a new poll this morning, and the results are not exactly predictable.

First of all, Barack Obama gets his worst ranking in this particular survey, with only 40% favorable, vs. 54% unfavorable.  The President did rank lower in a Mason/Dixon survey released earlier this spring (he was at 37%).  Pollster Peter Brown lays the blame directly on the reaction to the federal government's reaction to the Deepwater Horizon tragedy.

"Clearly, the gulf oil spill has changed the way Floridians view offshore drilling and almost certainly is responsible for the drop in President Obama's approval rating," said Brown. "Voters disapprove 54 – 37 percent of the way Obama is handling the spill."

The most dramatic swing from the last time Quinnipiac polled back in April is on the topic of offshore drilling.  Back then Floridians supported such a measure by 39% points, or 66-27.  Now, Florida voters oppose it by a  51 – 42 percent margin, a 48% swing, if you're scoring at home (and to paraphrase Keith Olbermann, good for you if you are right now).

Okay, what about the heavyweight Senate race?  Not good news for Kendrick Meek.  Governor Charlie Crist has a slight edge over Marco Rubio, at 37%-33%.  Meek? He's way back of the pack, at just 17% (A Rasmussen poll also released today shows Crist and Rubio tied at 37%, with Meek at 15%).

What's gets really interesting is in the governor's race.  Attorney General Bill McCollum has led all polls throughout the year, and in this Quinnipiac survey, he leads the probable Democratic nominee, Alex Sink, at a 42-34% margin, which is up slightly from two months ago, not a good trend for the CFO.

Quinnipiac does not survey a direct match-up in the Republican Primary between McCollum and Rick Scott, who has spent an estimated $7 million to put himself into the conversation.  However, in a mock match-up between Scott and Alex Sink, Scott leads Sink, 42-32%.

Read that again.  Talk about…..the power of commercials?  That is stunning, folks.

And what about Lawton Chiles the III, better known as Bud Chiles?  Though he just got in the race, the name means something to Floridians of a certain age, as he racks up some decent numbers.  In a three-way race in November, which could be the case as Lee is running as a non-party-affiliated candidate, it appears that Lee would damage Sink.  That scenario currently shows McCollum winning with 33%, Sink in 2nd with 25%, and Lee with 19%(!).

This article appears in Jun 3-9, 2010.