1. The Florida economy: Will it get better? Two important economic indicators that were released in the fading weeks of 2009 show that Tampa Bay, and Florida, are suffering as bad as any place in the nation.
The U.S. Department of Labor reported that no state lost more jobs in November than Florida. And last week we learned that home prices in the Tampa Bay area dropped more than any other market tracked nationally by Standard & Poor's and Case-Schiller.
No other story will be bigger in 2010. And all of the stories listed below will be affected by whether the state and the region can extricate itself from these ominous rankings.
2. The Left's increasing angst about Obama: Can the fissure be healed? A year ago the excitement among progressives as Barack Hussein Obama was inaugurated as the country's 44th president was palpable. Sure, the economy was rough. But with a black Democratic president (and one that for the first time in a generation wasn't a centrist Southerner), the hopes and dreams of the Democratic Left were profound, especially after the nightmare of eight years of the George W. Bush era.
But the honeymoon has ended for many liberals. Susan Smith is the campaign and precinct organizing chair for the Hillsborough County Democratic Party. She says there's a lot of anger on the left. "I think a lot of people are very disillusioned because they're not getting what they voted for. They gave up a lot of their time to get Barack Obama elected, but it's more of the same: on torture, on the Wall Street bailout, on Afghanistan."
The president must maintain or regain the support of progressives if he is to accomplish his goal of health care reform, as well as other important items on his agenda. Smith doesn't believe he can, but says that Democrats at the grass-roots level running for the legislature or Congress can motivate the base.
3. Could Pinellas County go Democratic in Congress? By now it's a foregone conclusion that the Democrats will lose seats in Congress in 2010. But where might they pick one off? Enter from the left: Charlie Justice. The state legislator announced a while back that regardless of whether 79-year-old C.W. Bill Young was going to retire or run again, Justice was gunning to represent Pinellas County in Florida's 10th Congressional District.
Despite (the seemingly annual) retirement rumors, it would be Young vs. Justice if the election were to be held today. But if Young does step down? Well, it will be interesting to see who would try to run in a GOP primary before taking on Justice.
4. The Rick Baker era ends. The Bill Foster era begins. How will he govern? During the grueling mayoral campaign, former city councilman and St. Petersburg native Foster said that running the city was his lifelong dream. Well, dreams came true for the 46-year-old lawyer last November, but like every other mayor in America, the challenges are formidable, as the recession certainly hasn't spared St. Pete. Foster had a lot of ideas in his "Foster Formula." It will be interesting to see how soon he tries to implement some of those policies, and how he works with City Council.
5. Pam Iorio's legacy: What will it be? Sure, Mayor Iorio's reign in office doesn't expire for 14 more months, but this is her last full year running Tampa. As some of the projects that consumed the first few years of her tenure finally reach fruition, the results could potentially transform downtown Tampa.
The first such effort will the opening of the much-anticipated Tampa Museum of Art next month. The new 66,000-square-foot facility will be unveiled at the same time and in the same place as the new and improved (to the tune of some $15 million) Curtis Hixon Park, based on a design by New York City-based urban developer Thomas Balsley — and later in the year we'll see the opening of the new Glazer Children's Museum, sited next to TMA on the park.
Those edifices will certainly be part of Iorio's legacy, but many observers believe that the white paper on transit she published in 2006 — an initiative that began the drive toward a light rail system in Hillsborough County — may leave the biggest historic footprint. Speaking of which…
6. The Hillsborough referendum on light rail: Can it pass? This subject has been debated significantly in recent months — and it's not even on the ballot (yet!). The GOP no-taxes mantra has only just begun to sound, and will no doubt be deafening come next fall. But will Tampa and the region remain stuck alongside poor Detroit as the only cities in the 25 biggest metro sections of the country that don't have light rail transit? A smattering of community activists — some Republican — insisted at a Hillsborough County Commission meeting last month that they supported the opportunity for a vote. There hasn't been any recent polling on the issue, but in the current economic environment, asking for citizens to tax themselves another penny in sales tax in Hillsborough County can never be assumed to be a sure thing, despite the wishes of so many others.
7. Florida Hometown Democracy Amendment: Will it pass? After years of attempts to kill it, this controversial ballot measure will finally get an up or down vote next fall. The measure calls for citizens to have veto power over changes to a local community's comprehensive master plan. Previously criticized even by like-minded critics of development, the initiative got a boost when Governor Crist signed SB 360 last year, a measure that among other things eliminates the state mandate for transportation concurrency in dense urban areas. Some 20 local governments throughout the state are suing, saying the law is unconstitutional, and other critics — some hardly of the tree-hugging variety — believe its passage guarantees that it's feeding time at the trough again for developers.
8. The governor's race: Could the conventional wisdom be wrong? Despite Alex Sink's many advantages over her probable GOP opponent Bill McCollum (she's female, personable and a formidable fundraiser, while the attorney general is, well, male, dour and the rare Republican who may have trouble keeping up financially with the former banker Sink), it is no sure thing that Sink can go all the way.
However, the likelihood of a Sink victory seems to be the conventional wisdom among political consultants on both sides of the aisle (never for the record, of course). But the lack of enthusiasm in Republican ranks for the 64-year-old McCollum is certainly one reason Lakeland State Senator Paula Dockery jumped into the race late last year.
So far, nothing that Dockery has done in her short campaign would indicate that an upset is likely. However, if 2009 was the year of the angry voter, then Dockery, with her unceasing campaign against the CSX rail deal recently approved by the legislature, could very well be the recipient of the Tea Party love glimpsed last month when she was featured in a rally organized by Tea Baggers in the state capital.
If polls shows Sink beating McCollum into the summer (currently the two are roughly even), it could lead to rank-and-file Republicans abandoning McCollum and throwing their support to Dockery, which would give the state its first ever female vs. female gubernatorial race.
9. The Rubio/Crist race: Is the winner the next U.S. Senator from Florida? The victor in this increasingly rancorous race is considered to be guaranteed the seat. Which means probable Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Kendrick Meek needs to step his game up, big time.
This article appears in Dec 30, 2009 – Jan 5, 2010.