In two national surveys of a thus-far hypothetical 2024 Republican Presidential Primary, the former President bested the Florida Governor in a crowded field, conforming with other recent polling. This suggests enthusiasm among certain conservative intelligentsia for DeSantis may not have translated fully to potential voters yet.
A McLaughlin survey Dec. 9-14 showed Trump winning both in a crowded field and a head-to-head with DeSantis. Trump’s 48% was more than double DeSantis’ 23%. Vice President Mike Pence had 5%, good for third place, followed by former Rep. Liz Cheney at 4% and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley at 3%. Mitt Romney had 2%, and Marco Rubio was one of eight names who got 1%.
While much recent polling has shown DeSantis dispatching Trump if the field were limited to just those two candidates, McLaughlin’s survey shows Trump topping DeSantis handily, with 58% backing against just 36% for the Governor. Back in October, when the question was first posed, Trump held a 64% to 29% edge.
One bright spot: If Trump doesn’t run for whatever reason, DeSantis is the front-runner with these 480 likely Republican Primary voters. He took 39% support against the field, with Donald Trump, Jr. in second with 16% as he continues to perform better with this pollster than others. Pence had 7% backing, with no other potential candidate over 4% of the vote.
A second recently released poll from Cygnal, conducted Dec. 12-14, shows Trump just five points ahead of DeSantis, with an analysis touting the “midterm shakeup.”
“While Trump still leads the field, his lead has narrowed to 5% over DeSantis from a 19% lead in October. DeSantis has drawn equal to him in favorability, with 74% of GOP primary voters saying they have a favorable opinion of each. Trump leads the hypothetical ballot with 40% indicating they plan to vote for the former President.”
Without Trump in the field, DeSantis had 52% support among the 1,079 likely voters surveyed. The pollsters note definite differences between supporters of the former President and the Governor.
“While the 2024 race for the Republican nomination for president is a long way off, there has been a shift in momentum over the last several weeks,” stated Cygnal President and pollster Brent Buchanan. “DeSantis’ rise has been fueled in part by the strengthening of his support among upper-education Republicans while (former) President Trump retains better support among lower-education primary voters.”
“There is a trend beginning to develop among age groups for the Republican Party — younger voters are staying with the former President while the older voting block is moving toward DeSantis, and middle-aged voters remain split between the two,” said Cygnal political strategist Mitchell Brown.
This article was first published at Florida Politics.
This article appears in Dec 15-21, 2022.