Charlie Cook is editor and publisher of The Cook Political Report, as well as a political analyst for the National Journal Group. He'll be appearing next Monday night at 7:30 p.m. at the Sarasota Hyatt Regency (more information below) to talk about the current political scene.
In the first of a two-part interview, we spoke to Cook last week about the GOP presidential field. He began by talking about who he says are the four candidates that poll in the double digits in most surveys: former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.
Charlie Cook: "With Huckabee, I remember meeting him when he was lieutenant governor in Arkansas. The thing is, no matter what he did, Huckabee was never ever able to get any crossover votes (in the 2008 primaries). The home schoolers, that kind of thing. It’s like the NCAA brackets. Different brackets, different branches, they’re competing for the dominance in one market. So that even when Huckabee was able to win the Iowa caucus, he was never able to cross over ..I’m a little skeptical, A) that he runs, B) I'm skeptical at how he might do.
Sarah Palin? I don’t think she’s going to run. She’s got a pretty sweet deal (as a commentator on Fox, and making tens of thousands on the lecture circuit), but even if she runs, I think there’s a lot of conservatives and they like what she says, she’s like a no-fly zone with independents, and If you’re just a non-starter with independents, you cannot win the presidency…The baggage just is too great to overcome.
Newt’s got so much baggage that he picked up when he was Republican leader it's just too great for him to overcome and again, same as Palin, can he compete with independents and win a general election? I think there’s enough questions in the minds of Republicans that he really can win.
This article appears in Feb 10-16, 2011.