Now that it's Valentine's Day of 2011, it's not outrageous for political junkies to wonder who the heck is going to become the first major candidate to declare he's (or she's) running for the GOP presidential nomination for 2012 — forget about who the "front-runner" is (and no, Herman Cain doesn't count).
The headline coming out of the CPAC conference that ended in Washington on Saturday was that Texas Congressman Ron Paul for the second consecutive year won a straw poll amongst the activists there as their presidential favorite (Paul of course ran in 2008 and may do the same next year).
But a lot of the usual suspects spoke at the conference, and a few of those officials appeared on the Sunday morning talk shows.
The most substantive interview came with Newt Gingrich on ABC's This Week, there to speak about the political earthquake in Egypt and not anything happening domestically, like a three-day conservative conference in D.C.
Newt always has opinions on everything, so he certainly held his own with Christiane Amanpour, as she quizzed him on the notion that the U.S. government should embrace democracy in Egypt and everywhere, yet we sometimes don't like the results (See Hamas and their victory in the Gaza Strip in 2006).
AMANPOUR: So let me ask you. The logical denouement of democracy is that they may elect people who you don't like. You're not able to control democracy. So how do you thread that needle?
GINGRICH: This is a huge challenge. It's not a question of liking or disliking. I mean, I'm perfectly — we have lots of governments…
(CROSSTALK)
AMANPOUR: No, but, still, how do you try to control democracy…
(CROSSTALK)
GINGRICH: Every society has to come to grips with the fact that there are some elements who would create a dictatorship, so you'd have one last vote. It wouldn't be a democracy; it would be one last vote. And whether it is Lenin replacing Kerensky, whether it is Hitler taking over in Germany, whether it is the Ayatollah running Iran, you have to be very cautious about the idea that — that every — that you can automatically accept a group if, in fact, you have pretty good reason to believe that their goal is a dictatorship.
It's the challenge — it's the tragedy of Zimbabwe, where you have a kind — a government which clearly is totally illegitimate.
AMANPOUR: Very quickly. One of the levers that America does have is democracy-building, but that requires foreign aid.
GINGRICH: Yes.
Only at the conclusion of the interview did Amanpour, obviously not as versed as her other D.C. talk show host colleagues about the de rigueur aspect of always quizzing a guest about their presidential possibilities, did ask Gingrich if he'll run.
The former House Speaker, who dragged out such a possibility for months on end four years ago before not running, said that he will "probably make a decision by the end of this month about whether or not to set up an exploratory committee, and we're working our way through it."
Way to stretch it out, Newt. You'll soon announce whether you'll have an exploratory committee? For heavens sake, run or don't run, but enough with the drama!
Following Gingrich was a for-certain candidate (we think) — former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, who fulfilled his constitutional duty as a potential foe of Barack Obama by talking trash about him and, in this case, how his administration handled the stunning events in Egypt.
First of all," Pawlenty replied, "before [Obama's] administration spoke like a tower of Babel, with multiple voices saying multiple things, they should have had one message that was clear and consistent and measured and appropriate. Instead you had the President, the Vice President, the Secretary of State, the national intelligence director going off in different directions, saying nearly incoherent things, at least inconsistent things," Pawlenty said.
"It's really important the United States of America speak with one voice. So, first of all, get your own team on the same page. That's lesson number one in a crisis: communicate clearly. Number two: we have to articulate, when we have that kind of an uncertain crisis unfolding, what our principles are," the former governor said. "One, we don't want a radical Islamic result. Two, we favor democracy. And President Mubarak and Suleiman or anyone else who may be purporting to be leading the nation needs to embrace those principles."
"When President Obama was asked the other night…directly in an interview right before the Super Bowl, do you think the Muslim Brotherhood should be running Egypt, he wouldn't answer the question. They asked him two or three times and the President of the United States ducked the question whether he thought it was a good or a bad idea whether the Muslim Brotherhood should be running Egypt," Pawlenty said, referring to an interview with Bill O'Reilly on the Fox network.
Another GOP potential candidate who looked like he was just about ready to declare his candidacy on Sunday was Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour, who appeared with Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday.
Barbour self-deprecatingly describes himself with a distinct drawl as the governor of a poor state, and a long-time Washington D.C. lobbyist, trying to mention some of his vulnerabilities from the outset.
This article appears in Feb 10-16, 2011.