With St. Petersburg's mayoral elections and Belleair's electricity referendum out of the way, we can turn our attention to the main event: 2006's mid-term elections.
Democrats in Florida are already crowing about their accomplishments in winning the governors' mansions in Virginia (a real accomplishment) and New Jersey (much less so) and knocking down pseudo-Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger's ballot initiatives in California.
"Just months ago, the pundits had written us off as dead," Democratic Party Chairwoman Karen Thurman wrote in an e-mail to the party faithful after polling showed the Florida governor's race match-ups in a dead heat. "The elections may still be a year away, but thanks to your hard work, we are now in a real race for the Governor's mansion in 2006."
Well, let's not jump to conclusions. After all, the Republican fundraising totals for governor dwarf the buckage that Davis and Smith have managed to amass.
For those betting their hard-earned campaign contributions in Tampa Bay, as well as those who just want – gasp! – good government, here is a look at how a few hot races are settling in with just under 12 months to go:
Governor: The top of the ticket is always the hottest show in town, and 2006 promises to have a very lively GOP primary. Charlie Crist is trying to hang onto the advantage of simply being a better politician, while Tom Gallagher is trying to out-conservative him. There was a time when I would have bet the farm that Crist would take that contest. Lately, he has made comments — speaking at a luncheon honoring the judge in the Terri Schiavo case, for one — that could alienate the strong social conservative bloc voting in the Republican primary.
The Democratic race, on the other hand, will be about as lively as watching snails hump. Neither candidate is a firebrand, and Tampa's Jim Davis right now owns a fairly sizable lead over Rod Smith. Davis has 25 percent of the Democratic vote to Smith's 15 percent, with 56 percent undecided in the latest Florida poll done by Quinnipiac University. Given the large uncertainty in those numbers, the polls mean almost nothing, except as a signal to the folks who give large wads of cash and bet early on these kinds of things. Davis has only a slight money lead: He has $820,500 in the bank vs. Smith's $791,366.
Once the primaries are over, the Florida governor's race should be among the most contested and nasty in the nation. The prescient Cook Report has this race as a toss-up.
Congressional 9: Two weeks ago, state Rep. Gus Michael Bilirakis was sitting pretty in this district, which goes from Plant City and northern Hillsborough, through northern Pinellas and then up into western Pasco County. First and foremost, he is the son of longtime Congressman Mike Bilirakis, whose tenure was virtually certain throughout his career and who is revered throughout Pinellas and Pasco counties, and especially in Tarpon Springs, where the Greek population holds him as a near saint.
But Gus Bilirakis was not merely some gravy-training son looking to inherit the old man's seat in Congress. He won grudging respect from the St. Petersburg Times for standing up to Republican leadership in the Florida House — for instance, voting against Gov. Bush's education reforms. And he has more than $560,000 in the bank.
Then Phyllis Busansky joined the race.
I have to disclaim up front that I have been friends with Busansky for many years, since covering her tenure as a Hillsborough County Commissioner while I was the county reporter for the Tampa Tribune. (Yes, there was a time when Democrats dominated the County Commission, pre-Ronda Storms.) I later volunteered in her first (unsuccessful) campaign for Congress against Jim Davis in 1996. I also worked as communications director in her welfare reform state agency, called WAGES.
By any measure, however, Busansky's candidacy creates a race where one didn't much exist before. Even Bilirakis' campaign manager, Elizabeth Hittos, told the Planet last week that her boss respects the former county commissioner and takes Busansky's candidacy and qualifications seriously. "He's not taking anything for granted," Hittos said. (Bilirakis was traveling to and from Washington, D.C., last week and was not available for an interview for this story.)
Busansky, in the meantime, is dialing for dollars, knowing she has to raise $1 million to be competitive. Fellow Democrat Gregory Rublee, in the race much longer than Busansky, has $76,000 cash on hand, as well, and will give her a test in the primary, using up some of her money. She has hired a finance director, Ashley Mild, who has experience in the Midwest, and Busansky has lined up Rep. Rahm Emanuel for a December fundraiser in Tampa. Bilirakis counters with his own celeb, Tony Orlando, in a non-singing appearance for Bilirakis' volunteers and community supporters.
Busansky faces long odds. The 9th has long been a Republican district and still leans that way, according to the Cook Report. It has been a long time since she was elected, and the political atmosphere has changed greatly since then. It remains to be seen how her work creating Hillsborough's Indigent Health Care Plan (misunderstood as welfare by many) and running welfare reform in Florida (which seems a distant memory for most voters) plays in this congressional district.
"It's a huge effort, but I'm convinced we can do it," she said.
Pinellas Legislative Districts: Republicans have put the word out: They must hold onto two Florida House seats in Pinellas County, and they're investing time and energy to make sure they do. The seats are now held by Leslie Waters and Frank Farkas, and both were previously held by Democrats.
The Blue-State Gang had its hopes on political consultant/author Liz McCallum and Chris Eaton (who has enjoyed support from such elected officials as Rick Kriseman and Jay Lasita) in Farkas' District 52 seat in St. Petersburg from downtown north — until Eaton dropped out unexpectedly last week. This district went for Betty Castor in the 2004 Senate race and is trending even more Democratic.
McCallum has raised $12,000 and spent almost every dime, to the consternation of party officials, who will beat the bushes for a better candidate.
For Republicans, the best hope in holding onto this seat is banker Angelo Cappelli, who has raised more than $50,000 and is being helped by some of the same folks who support Rick Baker. Also challenging in the GOP primary will be Sandie Curran, who has loyalty among party faithful for her role in the Bush 2004 campaign training and recruiting local volunteers. Other Republicans in the race include Sean Scott and Ross Johnson.
In Waters' District 51 seat, which covers parts of Seminole, Largo, South Pasadena and Pinellas Park, the Republican primary should be well fought between former longtime Waters legislative assistant Bruce Cotton and Seminole Mayor Dottie Reeder. The mayor likely will enjoy a financial lead and name recognition that is higher than Cotton's; unfortunately for her, some voters in unincorporated areas will recall her city's unsuccessful annexation attempts of a few years ago and might be inclined to punish her for it.
The Democrats don't offer a whole lot of strength here, with Seminole council member Janet Long and part-time librarian Mike Smith running. Look for this seat to stay in the Red.
Hillsborough County Commission: For the Ronda-haters out there, sorry, she's not up for re-election next year (and it seems unlikely that she would want to seek a seat in the Florida Legislature anyway, despite speculative reports). The real hot race in Hillsborough should be the Republican primary between newcomer Brad Swanson, who comes out of the Tampa chamber of commerce and will enjoy conservative east-county support, and Tampa City Council member Rose Ferlita.
Ferlita's work as an inner-city pharmacy owner (and the descendant of legendary Ybor City bakers) has endeared her to many Tampa residents and allowed her to beat incumbent Scott Paine when she first ran in 2003. But that brand of popularity doesn't play well in conservative Hillsborough County in a Republican primary. She's hired Rick Baker's television consultant Adam Goodman, who will have his hands full in this race.
The winner of this race is expected to face state Rep. Bob Henriquez, a Democrat.
Political Whore spent nine years as a campaign consultant in Tampa Bay. Former clients in the above story are Phyllis Busansky and Rose Ferlita. The PoHo can be reached by e-mail at wayne.garcia@weeklyplanet.com or by telephone at 813-739-4805.
This article appears in Nov 23-29, 2005.