The chaotic and fleeting weather outside our window today provides an apt reminder of our current political state.

One’s chaos seems to result from a number of atmospheric factors, including an influx of carbon dioxide that changes the patterns. The other appears to stem from a shifting economy, bad information and dirty money.

Yesterday’s delightful sunshine gave way to this morning’s storms and tornadoes. Last June’s assumption that former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (and scoffing at Donald Trump’s candidacy) faded in favor of Trump’s substantial lead, most recently in Nevada, where he took 45 percent of the GOP vote; Jeb, meanwhile, is no longer around.

We feel sorry for those whose job it is to speculate on how this thing’ll turn out, especially on the Republican side, where five candidates from an initial field of nearly 20 remain, and Trump, the clear frontrunner by most measures, has yet to win support from the GOP establishment.

The Washington Post‘s Callum Borchers writes that even if that’s the case, the once chucklingly skeptical mainstream press (and establishment Republicans) can no longer deny the strong likelihood of Trump winning the party’s nomination.

The Post‘s Philip Bump writes that Sen. Marco Rubio supporters may want to take solace in the fact that many candidates who went on to win the nomination lost their early primaries, namely former president Bill Clinton, who lost all of the early Democratic primaries.

After all, those backing the three other candidates may jump behind Rubio as their guys drop out, especially backers of Gov. John Kasich, who came in fifth in Nevada Tuesday.

However, the same might not be said about Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who paints himself as anti-establishment, or surgeon Ben “Nap Time” Carson, who also has a solid outsider status. Both are evangelical Christians who pull a lot of support from that crowd. If either drops out (and it currently appears unlikely Cruz will, despite a likability factor of about .01), it seems likely their supporters would opt for Trump, who seems, weirdly, to be doing quite well among evangelicals.

And, damn it, there’s still a ways to go.

It seems that way, anyway.

Super Tuesday, when over a dozen states have primaries, is March 1st.

States up for a vote that day include Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont and Virginia.

It’s outcome will be telling, especially for Cruz, since he hails from the Lone Star State.

We here in Florida have more than two weeks to wait, meanwhile; our primary if March 15.

It’s unclear who will still be standing by that time, but whoever is will definitely be spending a lot of time here, especially along the I-4 corridor (as Trump already has).

Trump has done well in the polls here, so, as with Cruz, it will be telling for Rubio, a native Floridian. He may be due for some establishment support in the wake of Bush’s exit from the race, though that might not matter, given how fed up people seem to be with experienced officeholders.

By the way, it sure is an odd time for Florida Governor Rick Scott, who penned an editorial praising Trump a while back, to be named as a potential running mate for the controversial billionaire.

It’s going to be a long two weeks.

The next debate among the remaining GOP candidates is Thursday at 8:30 p.m. EST on CNN.

This article appears in Feb 18-24, 2016.