It's time to play a little game of political "What If?"
Not as in the classic Saturday Night Live sketch that would posit a question like "What if Eleanor Roosevelt could fly?" and then examine the ramifications on the outcome of World War II. Ours is: What if Congressman Jim Davis goes ahead with his desire to run for the Democratic nomination for Florida governor in 2006?
This is more than an academic question. It goes beyond the possible match-up between two Tampa political heavyweights driving head-on for the governor's race in 2006: Davis and Betty Castor.
If the Tampa Democrat does enter the race, it will reshape Hillsborough politics.
You can't toss a piece of buttered Cuban toast in any of the usual political hotspots in town without hitting someone posing the question of who will back down first, Davis or Castor:
"Davis can't beat Castor, let alone beat Charlie Crist. He'd be crazy to run."
"Castor ran a bad race for U.S. Senate and can't make a comeback for governor. She hasn't won a race since 1980."
The Davis-Castor competition got more interesting last week when a Mason-Dixon Polling & Research poll released in the Orlando Sentinel gave Castor a 2-1 advantage over the next best Democrat in a gubernatorial primary. The problem for Davis is that he wasn't the next best Democrat. Davis ran third, with 9 percent of those polled backing him, behind Castor (35 percent) and Lawton "Bud" Chiles III (19 percent), a political novice and son of a legendary governor who runs strong on his name alone.
The Mason-Dixon poll, frankly, is a bit light in terms of the number of people surveyed (227 Democrats, with a margin of error of plus-or-minus seven points in a state where 300-400 respondents is considered the minimum for a good strong poll).
In April 2004, Castor had almost the exact same margins in polling against fellow U.S. Senate Democrat hopefuls Peter Deutsch and Alex Penelas. She won that race.
While those numbers are eliciting more than a little agita from some of Davis' closest supporters (one West Tampa insider reports that even some of Davis' Hispanic faithful have now told him he cannot win), many think he will run. A Tampa politician who attended a Davis pep rally in December said last week the congressman has the necessary "fire in the gut." The Sentinel reported as much in its account of a high-level meeting of Democrats in the Panhandle at which Davis and Chiles made it clear they were ready to run. Castor weighed in via conference call and said she "remains very interested," according to that account.
Castor has transformed her U.S. Senate campaign into a political action committee that could well serve as a platform for a pre-gubernatorial effort. Called The Campaign for Florida's Future, its broad range of concerns is topped by election redistricting reform. Castor's committee has a good-sized staff still on board, including her top fundraiser, former Howard Dean deputy Larry Biddle (partner of Planet editor David Warner), plus a few hundred thousand dollars in the bank, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Then there is the big-league game of musical chairs being played by folks who want to succeed Davis in Congress. In an increasingly Republican county, there are few other campaign possibilities for an elected Democrat with loftier ambitions.
Here are the odds-on favorites:
Florida Senator Les Miller. As the lone African-American senator in Tampa Bay, Miller has long been thought to have the best demographic appeal in this district, which was made more Democratic with a high percentage of African-American voters in the last round of redistricting. According to sources, Miller has met with potential opponents to feel out their intentions and to try to get them out of the race. His recent surgery for a cancerous mass on his kidney went well, by all reports, enabling him to run.
Former Tampa mayoral candidate Frank Sanchez. Since the day he lost to Iorio in 2003, Sanchez has been mentioned as a natural for Davis' seat. He has put in time in East Tampa in important African-American precincts, and is clearly interested. Strengths: Strong fundraiser, deep community roots, residual name recognition from mayoral race. Weakness: Will the folks who gave $1 million to Sanchez to run unsuccessfully for mayor feel like ponying up that cash again? Sanchez said last week he is considering his options.
Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor. Here's the most intriguing choice of the bunch. Imagine both Castors on the ballot at the same time, and Kathy being the only woman in the Democratic primary. She'd be very hard to beat in that scenario. The younger Castor demurs when asked about Congress, saying that she is still recovering from her mother's very emotional loss and has a full plate as county commissioner.
State Representative Bob "Coach" Henriquez. Henriquez is term-limited in the Florida House and a strong popular figure. While he has told some that he would love to be Tampa mayor one day, right now he needs to find a job in 2006 to keep him in the public eye. Weakness? He just took the head football coaching job at Tampa Catholic, and part of that gig was promising the school to return the team to glory and raise money for its first football field. He also might not run if Kathy Castor gets into the race.
At the next level of what-if's:
If Kathy Castor runs: Expect Republican Tampa City Councilwoman Rose Ferlita and Henriquez, a Democrat, to take a hard look at running for Castor's county commission seat. Henriquez could also consider Mary Alvarez's Tampa City Council seat, which will open in spring 2007 if Congress doesn't work.
If Miller doesn't run: State Representative Arthenia Joyner could consider running, as the only other African-American on the Hillsborough legislative delegation. If Miller runs, look for Joyner to be the strongest candidate for his Senate seat.
And so we would have a cascade of events triggered by one little occurrence (this is exactly how Three Mile Island happened). Will Davis run for governor and set matters in motion? His spokeswoman, Diane Pratt-Heavner, said last week that the congressman is "making a decision soon, in the next couple of months."
The Political Whore spends too much of his time drawing elaborate arrow-charts with likely candidates on them. You can reach Political Whore at 813-832-6427 or by e-mail at wayne.garcia@weeklyplanet.com.
This article appears in Feb 2-8, 2005.