A new poll out shows former Mayor Rick Baker leading the six-candidate mayoral field with some 45.7 percent of the vote (though, notably, that poll reportedly only surveyed voters who have landlines, which means the many people who eschew home phones aren't being counted here).
The weighted, St. Pete Polls-conducted survey taken Aug 7 has a 3.3 percent margin of error, which means it's not unreasonable to believe Baker is in a position to clear the 50 percent of votes he needs to avoid a November runoff against, probably, Kriseman — and politicos aligned with Baker are confident that will happen.
But Kriseman's camp is still campaigning like hell, seeking to counter the Baker camp's gloom-and-doom narrative about life in St. Pete under Kriseman — especially in south St. Pete, where Baker has been targeting predominantly African-American neighborhoods, largely via churches.
Over the weekend, the site theburgvotes.com called out the Baker campaign for disseminating what some considered a misleading press release on Thursday, July 27 touting support from 40 "pastors" in "Midtown" and "Child's Park" [sic]. The list contained non-pastors and religious leaders from well outside of those areas, and the name of at least one South Side church leader who didn't agree to having his name on the list. Pastor Ron Gibson of Gethsemane Missionary Baptist Church told Gypsy Gallardo, who runs the site, that he was "insulted" that his name appeared on the list without his consent and that he is leaning toward backing Kriseman.
And on Monday, the Kriseman camp announced support from Pastor Louis Murphy of Mt. Zion Progressive Missionary Church, who both Baker and Kriseman were courting. Murphy cited Kriseman's efforts to fight crime, spur economic development and — given his progressive Democratic leanings — stand up to Republicans in Tallahassee and Washington.
The St. Pete Polls survey suggests Baker and Kriseman are still neck-and-neck when it comes to black voter support, which both candidates have sought over the months of the campaign. Some 38 percent of black survey respondents said they support Kriseman; 38.6 percent said they back Baker.
Baker, meanwhile, is well ahead with the city's white voters, among whom he leads Kriseman 48.6 percent to 39 percent.
Kriseman touted one key white supporter on Tuesday: former Pinellas County Sheriff Jim Coats, a Republican who served from 2004 to 2011 — notably, the bulk of his tenure as sheriff was during the Baker years.
"I had the privilege of working with the mayor during his time in the Florida Legislature and always found him to be accessible, thoughtful and open-minded," Coats said in a written statement. "I can attest he is an outstanding public servant with remarkable character. I’ve been impressed by the improvements the mayor has made in the police department including re-branding the department, empowering his police chief and command staff, and making the agency attractive to new employee applicants. A community’s public safety is a quality of life issue which ranks at the top of most citizens' priorities. The residents of St. Petersburg will be best served under Mayor Kriseman’s leadership for another term."
The election is Tuesday, August 29, though with mail ballots having been out for nearly two weeks, many voters have already weighed in.
If Baker manages to get more than 50 percent of the vote, there will be no November runoff.
This article appears in Aug 3-10, 2017.