Less than a thousand people greeted former Vice Presidential nominee Sarah Palin at the Villages Retirement community north of Orlando yesterday.
The AP quotes USF Poli Sci Professor Dr. Susan McManus as wandering through the crowd in the piece, describing what the Palin faithful are all about:
"They're just angry at government and Sarah Palin to them is someone who can speak her mind and she's not part of the establishment," MacManus said. "She represents in their minds their viewpoint about what's wrong with government."
If Dr. McManus had been surveying the thoughts and feelings of the thousand plus waiting in line at Borders last Saturday in Tampa to see Glenn Beck, I believe she would have heard the same thing. But while Sarah got her 700-1000 at the Villages yesterday, Beck got at least 25,000 last Saturday at the Villages.
Beck's not running for President (yet). Palin may or may not be, but that question is one that pundits will continue speak with each about for the next couple of years, or until the former Alaskan governor definitively comments on her status.
This page won't dabble in such commentary. However, we did find interesting this column in Tuesday's Washington Post by Matthew Dowd, formerly George W. Bush's pollster and now a (pretty good) analyst with ABC News.
In a piece titled, "Yes she can: Palin has a shot at the presidency", Dowd writes:
Like it or not, if Sarah Palin decides to seek our nation's highest office, she has a shot. The probability of her success depends on her ability, and that of President Obama, to admit and learn from their mistakes as we head into 2012.
Dowd also writes that Palin's favorability numbers resemble Obama's.
Who the Republican candidate is, and his or her qualifications and abilities, will matter only if Obama's approval rating is between 47 and 51 percent going into the fall of 2012. Interestingly, in the latest Gallup poll Obama's approval rating was at a precarious 49 percent.
Second, America is still (unfortunately) politically divided and polarized, and Palin benefits from this dynamic. While Democrats love Obama, Republicans look on him with real disfavor. The gap between Obama's approval rating among Democrats and among Republicans is nearly 70 percentage points — a higher partisan divide than either Bill Clinton or George W. Bush experienced. Obama's agenda and actions this year, and some mistakes, have solidified this divide.
The interesting angle from Dowd's piece is that President Obama has really lost favor with independents and probably some Republicans who voted for him. If you'll recall just a year ago, the President won by the 3rd biggest margin by a Democrat in this century, a solid 8% victory. But his approval rating amongst the opposition is down lower than Bush or Clinton, our last Presidents, who were both re-elected.
I hate the speculation about 2012, because it's just silly. As our earlier piece on Afghanistan notes, from the economy to health care to foreign policy, Barack Obama is contending with intense problems, but so would have John McCain or Hillary Clinton. The world's a more complicated place by the day, which is one reason why the sheen is so dramatically off the 48 year old former U.S. Senator from Illinois. But it's nearly a full year until the Congressional elections, and nearly three years away to the next election. As Dowd writes, the President has plenty of time to shake off some rookie jitters. That will decide how relevant a shot Sarah Palin really has at all in 2012.
This article appears in Nov 25 – Dec 1, 2009.