Already, some wags are calling it the moderate shift.

A handful of high-profile social conservatives lost in the Sept. 5 primary, including Operation Rescue founder Randall Terry (in a Jacksonville-centered race against moderate Republican Jim King) and Tom Gallagher in the governor's race.

Three of the four candidates for governor, after all, were moderates. Mainstay right-wing issues such as parental consent and gay civil unions didn't pack the customary firepower. The Terri Schiavo case was, in fact, a liability even in Republican primaries.

So is the Christian right in Florida dead? Are progressive ideas on the rebound?

Let's just put it this way: Don't go putting any gay rights amendments on the ballot quite yet. Florida remains a red state. Its next governor will likely be Republican Charlie Crist (even if, with his "live and let live attitude," he is much more forgiving than Jeb Bush). Only one Florida congressional race is viewed by national oddsmakers as a possible Democratic takeaway: Ron Klein has a shot at beating Republican Clay Shaw down in South Florida.

Yet Florida's most intolerant political constituency is on shaky ground. Even social conservatives' victories were a mixed bag in the primaries. Take Ronda Storms' win in the Republican primary for the state Senate in District 10. Entirely predictable, given her name recognition and strength in this conservative district. Even more so, given the fact that she had two opponents who split the anti-Ronda vote.

But Storms' win should provide very little solace for social conservatives, if they take the time to dig behind the headlines. In a low-turnout election that she should have dominated, Storms failed to get even half of the Republican primary ballots cast. Her final tally was 49 percent.

Think about it this way, also: Social conservatives failed in their stated goals earlier this year to place key referenda on the ballot to attract Christian right voters. The anti-gay marriage referendum didn't gather enough signatures. In Hillsborough, plans for a straw-ballot referendum on adult businesses withered.

But progressives didn't have a big day on Sept. 5, either. An informal slate of progressives that had the support of Pinellas County Democratic Chairman Ed Helm lost — got waxed, in fact, in two of the three races. None of the Democratic gubernatorial candidates was a hardcore progressive. Hell, Rod Smith was the darling of Big Sugar and the NRA, fer chrissakes.

So where does that leave us? In the middle.

Granted, there are a handful of races, especially in Pinellas, that pit progressive Democrats against Republicans. Candice Jovan in Florida House 50 and Samm Simpson running against Congressman C.W. "Bill" Young are two examples. But the Congressional District 9 race is more typical of the moderate vs. moderate setup, with Republican centrist Gus Bilirakis running against Democrat and welfare reformer Phyllis Busansky.

The Hottest Races: For those with limited political time on their hands, here are the most interesting and important races to watch for in November:

Bilirakis vs. Busansky, Congressional District 9: Bilirakis is a strong favorite, and none of the national campaign watchers have this race as anything but "strong GOP." But it ought to be fun, and don't count Busansky out simply because of the voter registration numbers.

Kim Berfield vs. Charlie Justice, Florida Senate 16: Again, this district strongly favors the Republican, and Berfield showed some real muscle in her primary against Frank Farkas. Still, this is likely the No. 1 target for both parties in the Florida Senate, so expect lots of money and lots of mudslinging, which started even before the primaries were decided.

Angelo Cappelli vs. Bill Heller, Florida House 52: The undisputed No. 1 target for both parties in the House of Representatives, it will be hotly contested between a real up-and-comer, the Republican Cappelli, and Heller, who is as much of a fixture in St. Petersburg's power structure as you'll find.

April Griffin vs. Ken Allen, nonpartisan Hillsborough School Board: Allen is an insider, having spent his career in the school system. Griffin is an outsider who calls for strong reforms and lots more questioning of the superintendent and her staff.

Jim Norman vs. Joe Redner, Hillsborough County Commission: Yes, I know Redner has never won an election. Yes, I know Norman is damned near unbeatable. But it will be fun to watch anyway.

Need the info: Project Vote Smart has come up with an interesting addition to its website. You can now look up your favorite elected officials and see how they voted on a series of key issues in the past year. Those issues include the attempt to repeal the class-size amendment; vouchers; the 65 percent school funding plan; stem cell funding; repeal of the intangibles tax; tort reform; and increasing teacher salaries. You can find it at (sorry, this is a long one) www.vote-smart.org/issue_skeyvote.php?state_name=Florida&state_code=FL.

This article appears in Sep 13-19, 2006.