After flipping two legislative seats in special elections, Florida Democrats are riding a wave of enthusiasm. But whether that translates to victories in November remains to be seen.
Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said they’ve had more candidates sign up to run for office than they ever have before – the party has recruited 1,200 people for the ballot since 2025.
“People are just flooding our zone,” Fried told the News Service of Florida.
The reasons: cost of living concerns and President Donald Trump.
“To see the disregard of life from the commander in chief is making a lot of people stand up,” Fried said.
In 2024, it took more “energy and time and commitment” to recruit, Fried admitted. Since then, the party has shifted to the “Pendulum Project,” a year-round organizing model that focuses on bottom-of-the-ticket races such as school boards and city commissions.
Investment from the national Democratic Party isn’t off the table, she said. Both national and state-wide organizations have shown interest in coming back to Florida, even though Republicans swept the 2024 election up and down the ballot.
Republicans have held the governor’s mansion since 1999 and the Legislature since the mid-1990s. Fried is only one of three Democrats to win a state-wide race since 2000, and no Democrat has won a seat since Fried, when she was elected Agriculture Commissioner in 2018.
Democrats held a voter registration advantage over Republicans as recently as 2020. But the GOP gradually overtook them and expanded their lead every year since.
State data shows there are 5.5 million registered Republican voters, about 1.5 million more than Democrats, which have more than 4 million. There are more than 3.8 million third-party or no party affiliation voters.
Still, Democrats are pulling off victories in parts of Florida Republicans were starting to see as comfortably red, including President Trump’s backyard.
Emily Gregory flipped the Florida House seat for District 87, which includes Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence and went to a Republican in 2024. And Brian Nathan beat Republican state Rep. Josie Tomkow for Lt. Gov. Jay Collins’ Senate seat, which has been vacant since last August.
A recent internal survey from Democrat Alex Vindman, conducted by Public Policy Polling, has him closing in on U.S. Sen. Ashley Moody, R-Tampa. The poll shows Vindman with 40 percent support, 3 percent behind Moody.
But Evan Power, chairman of the Republican Party of Florida and a candidate for a U.S. House seat in the Panhandle, isn’t buying it.
“I’ve also got some oceanfront property to sell out of state Democrats,” Power posted on X.
The Florida Legislature is scheduled to return to Tallahassee on April 20 for a special session on redistricting called by Gov. Ron DeSantis, but the recent Democratic wins have some Republicans thinking twice.
Fried said the attempt to redraw the state’s congressional maps will flop.
“I’m pretty bullish this will backfire on Republicans,” she said. “It doesn’t matter what those lines look like. People are fed up and frustrated with what is happening in Washington D.C., and they want people who can go up there and fight for them.”
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This article appears in Apr. 09 – 15, 2026.