Florida economists' forecast for 2010? Pretty crappy

Meanwhile, over at the St. Pete Times, economics writer Robert Trigaux lists a series of scenarios that he says economists say could make the recovery in Florida longer and harder than in other parts of the country.  One of them is a big one that Florida politicians, or at least those in power (i.e. Republican) over the past decade, have refused to touch.  That being,


5. Florida's public finances situation remains precarious, with sales tax receipts accounting for 60 percent of state revenues and property taxes providing the bulk of local revenues. Such a mix, Vitner notes, has "proven toxic" in past recessions and left the state with a serious budget shortfall. That has forced cuts in services, as well as tax hikes and increased user fees.


So what to do?  Certainly, the situation cries out for leadership . And maybe the familiar mantra that you “never raise taxes in a recession” is apt at this juncture, but once this recession does end, you would hope that someone would have the courage to reconsider the state's  myriad sales tax exemptions.


But it has been for far too long.  Look, no state income taxes.  We all love that, right?  You gotta pay your government somehow, or if not, the state will continue to languish in such important areas as education and child health care.

Well,  it’s a new year, and because the economy has  essentially bottomed out, things have to be better in 2010 in the Sunshine State.  Right?

Not exactly, as articles in both local morning dailies confirms what economists were saying before the 2008 election – that the recession would last until at least 2011.

The Tampa Tribune’s Shannon Behnken quotes UCF Econ professor Sean Snaith as saying that those workers who have lost their jobs in construction, banking or real estate are probably never going to get them back.

“Some of those jobs aren’t coming back.  Some people will have to completely change careers.”

Snaith also says in his interview with the Trib that he expects the state’s unemployment rate — currently at 11.5 percent — to stay in double digits until 2012.

The Trib also quotes one of the best economists who studies Florida, Chris Lafakis at Moody’s Economy.com, as saying the Tampa Bay  area’s unemployment rate will hit bottom later this year, at 13.6 %.

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