Political Predictions 2017: Still crazy after a hell of a year

U.S. Rep Kathy Castor, who is considered by some as a potential Democratic contender for governor in 2018. - Anthony Martino
Anthony Martino
U.S. Rep Kathy Castor, who is considered by some as a potential Democratic contender for governor in 2018.

It was a common refrain in the final days of the 2017 election cycle, as candidates and their surrogates crisscrossed the all-important swing State of Florida: I just want this damn thing to be over.

Politics was everywhere, and in a manner so filthy and contentious it seemed to spark acute anxiety among even the most casual observers. Of course, it was a presidential year that featured two of the most divisive people ever to enter American politics. And now, it's over — sort of, but not really.

Sorry, Florida.

It's not just that people are looking forward to the (ugh) 2020 election season.

It's that, 2017 has its own set of political machinations that, while they won't capture our imaginations nearly as bigly (had to) as a Donald Trump-Hillary Clinton battle royale, they're pretty damned important.

Here's what's coming over the next 12-ish months, and how they might pan out.

State party chair elections

In most years, this wouldn't be interesting to anyone who's not an ingrained politico.

That may be more or less true on the Republican side, because they're pretty content with their election-winning prowess at the state level (*cough* rampant gerrymandering and scheduling major elections in off years when no one's paying attention *cough*). Party chair Blaise Ingoglia is in the running, and since dude helped deliver the state to one Donald J. Trump, one would assume the party is pleased with him.

That's not the case on the Democratic side.

Given the events of the past year or six, the Florida Democratic Party obviously has some soul-searching to do. The departure of state party chair Alison Tant is a chance for them to do this. But a long-running complaint among the party's progressives, that monied moderates want to control who runs and where (and try to strong-arm candidates they deem un-electable out of the primaries), may fall into play here.

Citing party power brokers' attempts to push them out of the running, two of the five candidates vying for state chair (activist Alan Clendenin and South Florida State Sen. Dwight Bullard) moved to rural counties where they could easily win local chair posts and thus be qualified to run for state chair.

All five candidates say they want to reform the party, after several bruising election cycles in which Democrats run moderates who lose (save for U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson), as they did in the presidential race with disastrous results.

The notion that Sen. Bernie Sanders could have beaten Trump is probably emboldening the state's progressive wing, which largely backs Bullard.

Whoever wins will determine the direction of the party: who runs for governor, what kind of message the party promotes, how inclusive it is.

Trump's inauguration

This goes without saying.

On Jan. 20, people from across the country, including Florida, will flock to Washington, DC to watch the culmination of the transition of power or some such.

A good chunk of those throngs of people will be vocal protesters.

How they and Trump supporters interact with one another will probably help set the tone for the next four years (haven't we had enough tone-setting by now?). Let's hope it goes well and no one gets hurt.

Sesh, dude

Florida's annual parade of God, guns and...school vouchers begins on the First of March, and there are already loads of bills that do things like allow open carry or ban fracking. Lawmakers will also have to figure how to implement a voter-approved constitutional amendment legalizing medical marijuana, and considering that most of them opposed the law, it should be fun watching it play out. Same goes for the voter-approved amendment creating more tax breaks for solar power.

St. Pete elects, or reelects

St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman hasn't announced his bid for reelection, but it's not a stretch to say you can expect an announcement soon.

He'll probably have at least two challengers; tea party activist Paul Congemi has already filed.

Possible challengers include former mayor Rick Baker, former mayor Bill Foster, and Councilman Karl Nurse.

Kriseman can boast some key accomplishments in areas were past mayors had stalled, namely in forging ahead on the Pier and the Rays' stadium search as well as promoting LGBTQ equality.

But critics have been trying for years to play up his vulnerabilities. Some vocally blame him for the city's handling of the Pier selection process, which led to the demolition of the inverted pyramid structure that some loved and others reviled. He's also been blamed for the city dumping tens of millions of gallons of sewage into Tampa Bay after major rain events, though supporters say previous administrations' neglect of city infrastructure contributed to the problem.

Four council seats will also be up for reelection: districts 2, 4, 6 and 8. Councilwomen Darden Rice and Councilwoman Amy Foster will be up for reelection (should they choose to run again, and why wouldn't they?). Nurse and Councilman Jim Kennedy are terming out, and aside from activist Sharon Russ no one has officially qualified for any of the council races.

Chances are, we'll start hearing more rumblings pretty soon.

The primary is Aug. 29 and the general is Nov. 7.

And then, 2018 fires up

Remember how Rick Scott is our governor?

Well, many political scientists say that if Florida Republicans hadn't placed gubernatorial contests in off years, when Democrats tend to forget about voting, that might not have happened.

Oh, well.

But wait: the race for governor in 2018, when Scott (finally!) terms out, has been speculated upon for years already, even if we're probably still months out from any candidacy announcements.

In the Dems’ corner, prospective candidates have been lining up for years, including Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn, former Panhandle Congresswoman (and daughter of a well-liked former senator/governor) Gwen Graham, Congresswoman Kathy Castor, Miami Beach Mayor Phil Levine and, more recently, well-known lawyer John Morgan. For the GOP, possible contestants include Ag Secretary Adam Putnam, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, State Sen. Jack Latvala and former St. Pete Mayor Rick Baker.

That race is likely to be packed with shenanigans, so stay tuned.

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