With Tuesday’s primary elections in the rearview mirror, Republicans and Democrats can go back to hating on each other rather than cannibalizing their own parties.
We kid. Sort of.
The primary season was pricey and contentious, with alliances and fissures forming within each party at every turn. Via a flurry of campaign mailers, Democrats fought over who among their roster was more Obama-like, while Republicans sought to convince GOP voters of their opponents’ Obama-lovin’ ways.
But that’s all over now, and soon candidates — those in races that are actually competitive, anyway — will come to the center while trying to cast the other as extreme.
In some races, there’s a comfortable (probably Republican) incumbent with a lesser-known opponent fightin’ the good fight for the party.
In others — mostly the ones recently redrawn as a result of the redistricting lawsuit — incumbents will try to fend off formidable challengers. Democrats running in such races will fight tooth and nail to try to get swing voters to see their Republican opponents as miniature Donald Trumps while Republicans will try to portray their foes as Hillary clones. But who knows if the latter will work this year, given Democrats’ tendency to turn out in higher numbers in presidential election years? Plus, there’s the whole Trump factor, a Cat. 3 hurricane in U.S. presidential politics. Having him at the top of the ballot could scare voters away from Republicans in down-ballot races. Or not; who really knows this year?
Here’s the lay of the land, and our color-coded take on how, er, interesting the contested races will be.
U.S. SENATE RACE
Where: The entire Sunshine State, my friend.
Who: Incumbent Senator who doesn’t like being a Senator Marco Rubio, a Republican, U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-Jupiter), and Paul Stanton, who won the Libertarian Party’s first-ever Florida primary.
Level of interest: Ultraviolet. This’ll be one the entire nation has its eyes on as the Dems try to wrest the Senate away from the GOP (though it’s less likely to happen here than in other states). The awkward relationship between Rubio and Trump (Dems will incessantly try to paint him as a Trump lover, believe me) will get even more comical, as will Murphy’s probable attempts to dodge debates with the oh-so-smooth-talking presidential aspirant, just as Murphy did with his primary opponent, bombastic U.S. Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Orlando).
U.S. HOUSE DISTRICT 13
Where: The southern two-thirds or so of Pinellas County.
Who: Former Florida Governor Charlie Crist (D), U.S. Rep. David Jolly (R-Indian Shores).
Level of interest: Impossibly tan. Swing districts aren’t really much of a thing anymore (hence a bunch of extremists taking over Congress). But the 13th is one (though it now leans Democrat). Jolly is a well-liked, mostly moderate incumbent who does well in debates. But he pissed off GOP leaders by calling out their preoccupation with fundraising, meaning that the outside money behind him won’t be remotely what it was in the 2014 special election in which he was first elected. Crist likely will have support from state and national Dems, not to mention that famous charm (though some people are still skeptical of the Republican-turned-NPA-turned-Democrat). But will charm and $$$ be enough to unseat a sitting member of Congress? This is 2016, so we aren’t putting our money on either. As Jolly’s primary race was called in his favor Tuesday night, Crist’s people sent out an email invoking Trump, and likely will continue to do that until Nov. 8.
U.S. HOUSE DISTRICT 14
Where: Tampa, mostly; southern Hillsborough County.
Who: U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor (D-Tampa), Christine Quinn (R).
Level of interest: Aqua. A popular Democrat, Castor is pretty safe in her seat. Thousands of south Pinellas Dems were axed from her district as a result of the redistricting lawsuit, but most politicos don't think a few thousand less Democrats would really tip the scales. It’s a presidential year (again, Dems are probably going to show up for once) and, hey, didn’t Quinn speak at a Trump rally recently? That means independent voters in the district can probably look forward to anti-Quinn mailers with Trump’s face on them. Lucky them.
STATE SENATE DISTRICT 18
Where: Tampa-ish, mostly South Tampa.
Who: Bob Buesing (D), Joe Redner (I), Sheldon Upthegrove (I), State Rep. Dana Young (R-Tampa).
Level of interest: Candy apple. This newly drawn seat is competitive for Republicans and Democrats. Young, the incumbent, is House Majority Leader and is bringing in truckloads of money, via both her campaign and a PAC. Dems will probably (continue to) hit her hard on what they say is a cozy relationship with Big Sugar (which shows in her PAC) and her support of the controversial TBX project. But Buesing, the Democrat in the race, has to amp up his name recognition. Plus, Redner could be a real wrench with a progressive message that might siphon Democratic voters. Whether or not that happens, Redner, a well-known (and somewhat notorious) businessman, will add some spice to the race.
STATE SENATE DISTRICT 19
Where: Tampa, downtown and South St. Pete.
Who: John “MrManners” Houman (R), State Rep. Darryl Rouson (D-St. Pete) OR State Rep. Ed Narain (D-Tampa)
Level of interest: Khaki. The tough Democratic four-way primary race went south quickly via attack ads. In the end it came down to Rouson and State Rep. Ed Narain (D-Tampa), who lost by less than 100 votes (as of press time a recount appears to be in order). Former State Rep. Betty Reed, who previously held Narain’s current seat, came in third, and lawyer Augie Ribeiro — whose campaign consisted largely of attacking Narain and Rouson — came in fourth.
STATE SENATE DISTRICT 24
Where: Parts of St. Pete, mid-Pinellas County.
Who: State Sen. Jeff Brandes (R-St. Petersburg), Alexander Johnson (Write-in).
Level of interest: Bleu cheese. Johnson is a write-in; the Dems didn't even bother running anyone against the powerful Senator (same goes for S.D. 20, Sen. Jack Latvala's seat — he's completely unopposed).
STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 60
Where: South Tampa, mostly.
Who: David Singer (D), Jackie Toledo (R).
Level of interest: Terracotta tile. This is Rep. Dana Young’s former seat, which Dems think they can nab via Singer, a Tampa lawyer. Toledo eked out a primary win against Rebecca Smith, who had endorsements from some GOP heavyweights. Toledo famously lost a Tampa City Council race to Guido Maniscalco in 2015 after a largely negative campaign. Let’s hope she doesn’t use the same consultant.
STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 63
Where: New Tampa and the like.
Who: State Rep. Shawn Harrison (R-Tampa), Tampa City Councilwoman Lisa Montelione (D).
Level of interest: Citrus. It is a swing district. A Democratic wave, if there is one, could mean a win for Montelione. But Harrison does have the incumbent advantage, access to all the GOP establishment money, etc.
STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 65
Where: Northern Pinellas County.
Who: Bernard “Bernie” Fensterwald III (D), State Rep. Chris Sprowls (R-Palm Harbor).
Level of interest: Olive. Fensterwald is not well-known, but he is self-funded (if the name rings a bell, it’s because he’s the son of the well-known attorney of the same name). He’s up against a polished opponent rumored to be a future House Speaker prospect, one who probably doesn’t have to worry much about money or party support. Fensterwald’s money makes it likely to be more fun to watch, even if the district is beet-red.
STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 66
Where: Seminole.
Who: State Rep. Larry Ahern (R-Seminole), Lorena Grizzle (D) (again).
Level of interest: Hot sand. Ahern fended off a challenge from Grizzle, a soft-spoken educator, in 2014. But this year, there’s a Trump factor at play, and Ahern enthusiastically voiced his support for Trump months before he became the nominee. Then again, the district is on the red side…
STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 67
Where: Largo-ish.
Who: Sate Rep. Chris Latvala (R-Largo), David Vogel (D).
Level of interest: Prosecco. The 67th is a swing district. There are slightly more Dems than Republicans, but there are also nearly as many minor and non-party candidates as there are voters registered in either major party. Plus, Latvala is a well-known incumbent who hasn't always toed the party line.
STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 68
Where: Parts of eastern St. Pete, Pinellas Park.
Who: Ben Diamond (D), Joseph Bensmihen (R)
Level of interest: Seaweed. The 68th leans Democrat; outgoing Democratic Rep. Dwight Dudley held onto his seat for two terms despite a well-monied challenge in 2014. Diamond defeated Eric Lynn in a contentious primary, one in which they tried to cast one another as, basically, sleazy lobbyists or whatever. A newcomer to St. Pete and to politics, Bensmihen has a steep uphill battle in terms of fundraising and name recognition — not to mention making a conservative platform seem appealing to the district’s voters who, again, went twice for Dudley, a stalwart progressive. He also clearly doesn’t know the district very well (he said his favorite restaurant on Fourth Street is Chick-fil-A), but he’s probably got someone coaching him on that now.
STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 69
Where: Pinellas Beaches, west St. Pete, Gulfport, South Pasadena.
Who: State Rep. Kathleen Peters (R-South Pasadena), Jennifer Webb (D).
Level of interest: Sunrise. Incumbent Peters faces Democratic challenger Webb, the director of community partnerships at USF. Peters has strong support from the GOP establishment (her campaign fund currently exceeds Webb's, $227,743 to $87, 470), but Webb is a personable, energetic candidate, and then there's the Trump factor — even if Peters says she's not weighing in on presidential politics this time.
STATE HOUSE DISTRICT 70
Where: Parts of Hillsborough, Pinellas, Manatee and Sarasota counties.
Who: Wengay Newton (D), Cori Fournier (R ).
Level of Interest: Clear. Another seat that was probably decided in its contentious, multi-way primary. While Wengay Newton, a former St. Pete City Councilman, largely avoided the drama, candidates C.J. Czaia and Dan Fiorini duked it out. Fiorini, the only openly gay candidate in the race, criticized Czaia for hiring Theresa “Momma Tee” Lassiter, a south St. Pete activist known for her anti-LGBT rants, to consult him on African-American issues. This, despite pro-LGBT Pinellas Stonewall Democrats' endorsement of Czaia. The district is mostly African-American and solidly Democrat, so the seat's general will be a far cry from its primary.
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY COMMISSION DISTRICT 6
Where: Countywide.
Who: Pat Kemp (D), Tim Schock (D).
Level of interest: Ripe strawberry. It’s quite a hot ticket, given that it’s an open seat (Commissioner Kevin Beckner, a Democrat, terms out of it this year). The four-person Democratic primary was hard-fought, yes. And it was delightful to watch the implosion of former State Sen. Jim Norman’s political career. Republicans and Democrats now have to get behind their candidates and duke it out. Kemp won’t take anything for granted, but she is running against a lesser-known Republican in a presidential year. In 2014 she ran against an incumbent Republican for another commission seat, Al Higginbotham, and lost by just a point.
HILLSBOROUGH CLERK OF THE CIRCUIT COURT
Where: Countywide.
Who: Pat Frank (D), Eric Seidel (R).
Level of interest: Raspberry. What grabbed headlines more than anything was how negative the Democratic primary campaigning got, namely on Commissioner Kevin Beckner’s end. Beckner had been regarded as a thoughtful, strategic politician until this campaign, which attacked incumbent Pat Frank on a number of issues, including her work ethic. It didn’t work, and Frank faces lawyer and former television news reporter Eric Seidel in the general.
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY STATE ATTORNEY
Where: Hillsborough County, of course.
Who: Mark Ober (R) vs. Andrew Warren (D).
Level of interest: Dark manila. You'd think such a race would be nonpartisan, but you'd be wrong. Ober is a popular Republican incumbent facing a challenge from a lesser-known Dem contender who went negative early and often on everything from access card swipes to Ober's office's handling of high-profile murder cases. Ober should probably worry most about those Democrats going to the polls en masse, though.
PINELLAS COUNTY COMMISSION, DISTRICT 3
Where: South county, Pinellas Beaches.
Who: County Commissioner Charlie Justice (D), Mike Mikurak (R).
Level of interest: Orange tabby. The local GOP establishment would really like a conservative Republican voice on the commission, given that the commission passed a ban on fracking and supports a wage theft ordinance and civil citations for nonviolent crime and other things that aim to protect people instead of The Corporations. Those monsters! Mikurak has already out-raised Justice, but Justice has party support and name recognition. Plus: Trump factor.
This article appears in Aug 25 – Sep 1, 2016.