Will moviegoers be facing a winter wonderland or merely a big chill?

That's always the question asked at this time of year, when the studios stop fidgeting with their fall releases and bring out the big guns of the holiday season. It's that window of opportunity when studios hope their movies will rake in gobs of cash (Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, The Chronicles of Narnia), gobs of awards (Memoirs of a Geisha, Brokeback Mountain) or gobs of both (The Producers, King Kong). Oscar-bait performers (Sean Penn, Judi Dench) and directors (Steven Spielberg, Woody Allen) will be making the rounds, but so will individuals who have as much chance of seeing glittering prizes (that means you, Johnny Knoxville) as Michael Moore has of being the Republicans' presidential nominee in 2008.

On paper, the season holds promise: I'll endure dreadful-looking releases like Cheaper By the Dozen 2 if the trade-off is that such highly anticipated titles as Walk the Line and Syriana live up to their potential. However, to paraphrase the sports cliché "That's why they play the games," that's why we watch the movies — to see whether they confirm or shatter our expectations. With that in mind, here's a look at the titles headed our way over the next two months (and beyond), films that will hopefully prove to be worth their weight in Oscar gold.

NOVEMBER 18

HARRY POTTER AND THE

GOBLET OF FIRE

With a little help from his friends (Rupert Grint and Emma Watson), the boy wizard (Daniel Radcliffe) takes on his deadliest foe, Lord Voldemort (Ralph Fiennes). Mike Newell (Four Weddings and a Funeral) takes over the director's chair for this fourth installment.

WALK THE LINE

Johnny Cash (Joaquin Phoenix) makes his mark on the music scene at a youthful age, with his eventual wife June Carter (Reese Witherspoon) by his side. The bio-pic reportedly received the real Cash's stamp of approval before his death, and the filmmakers are clearly hoping for a critical and commercial success to match that of last year's Ray.

NOVEMBER 23

THE ICE HARVEST

After ripping off the Mob, a lawyer (John Cusack) and his cohort in crime (Billy Bob Thornton) find they're unable to skip town because of crushing weather conditions.Longtime funnyman Harold Ramis (Groundhog Day) is at the helm of this dark comedy; the adapted script is by heavyweights Robert Benton (Kramer vs. Kramer) and Richard Russo (Empire Falls).

IN THE MIX

A deejay (Usher) is hand-picked to look after the daughter (Emmanuelle Chriqui) of a prominent gangster (Chazz Palminteri).This was originally titled Dying for Dolly (presumably, studio execs were afraid people might mistake it for a Dolly Parton biopic).

JUST FRIENDS

After being told in high school by the girl he desires that she wants to be "just friends," a guy (Ryan Reynolds) bumps into the same woman (Amy Smart) in adulthood and decides to pursue her once again. Anna Faris appears in a supporting role; she and Reynolds just co-starred in (shudder) the raunchy comedy Waiting.

RENT

With their East Village digs as their base, several struggling artists cope with various hardships (including the specter of AIDS) while attempting to eke out a living. This is based on the Pulitzer Prize-winning Broadway smash, but such a pedigree is no guarantee of success, as witnessed by the middling grosses of other high-profile musical adaptations like The Phantom of the Opera and Evita. Director Chris Columbus had previously moved up from the first two Home Alone flicks to the first two Harry Potter titles.

YOURS, MINE AND OURS

After doing the math, two prolific single parents (Dennis Quaid and Rene Russo) realize that their planned nuptials will result in a household of 18 children. Henry Fonda and Lucille Ball starred in the pleasant 1968 original. This looks comparable to the modern remakes of Cheaper By the Dozen and Father of the Bride, a thought which is already giving me heartburn.

DECEMBER 2

AEON FLUX

In the 25th century, a kick-ass warrior named Aeon Flux (Charlize Theron) leads a rebellion against the oppressive regime in charge. This is based on a popular MTV animated series, though comparisons to The Matrix will invariably be made. Director Karyn Kusama previously helmed the impressive indie effort Girlfight.

DECEMBER 9

THE CHRONICLES OF

NARNIA: THE LION, THE WITCH

AND THE WARDROBE

Four young siblings in WWII England discover a magical wardrobe that allows them access to the mystical land of Narnia; there, they side with the lion king Aslan to defeat the evil White Witch (Tilda Swinton). Mindful of the success of multi-part literary adaptations like The Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter, Disney hopes this will be lucrative enough to warrant further screen versions of C.S. Lewis' Chronicles.

MEMOIRS OF A GEISHA

A Japanese girl survives a difficult upbringing to emerge as a renowned geisha (Ziyi Zhang) who can have anything she wants except for the man (Ken Watanabe) she truly loves. This was a longtime pet project for Steven Spielberg, but Rob Marshall (Chicago) was finally the go-to guy who took the directorial reins (Spielberg is still involved as a producer). Besides Ziyi (House of Flying Daggers) and Oscar nominee Watanabe (The Last Samurai), the superb cast includes Michelle Yeoh (Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) and the magnificent Gong Li (Raise the Red Lantern).

SYRIANA

The oil industry provides the backdrop for interlocked storylines involving a disillusioned CIA operative (George Clooney), an oil broker (Matt Damon) contending with a personal tragedy and a corporate lawyer (Jeffrey Wright) experiencing a crisis of conscience. Director Stephen Gaghan, who won the Best Adapted Screenplay Oscar for Steven Soderbergh's Traffic, loosely based his script on Robert Baer's book See No Evil: The True Story of a Ground Soldier in the CIA's War on Terrorism.

DECEMBER 14

KING KONG

The great ape walks again, first through his familiar haunts on Skull Island and then through that concrete jungle known as New York City. Nobody can accuse Peter Jackson of thinking small: The man who brought the wildly profitable Lord of the Rings trilogy to the screen has now elected to remake a landmark motion picture that didn't really call out for an overhaul (see also: Gus Van Sant's Psycho or Dino de Laurentiis' 1976 King Kong). The cast is headed by Naomi Watts, Jack Black and Adrien Brody, while the CGI ape's movements were based on those of actor Andy Serkis (who provided similar duties as Gollum in LOTR).

DECEMBER 16

THE FAMILY STONE

A neurotic New Yorker (Sarah Jessica Parker) reluctantly agrees to spend the holidays with her boyfriend (Dermot Mulroney) and his New England family, a decision that leads to various personality clashes. Originally slated for a November 11 release, this has been moved into the thick of the holiday season. The large ensemble cast features Diane Keaton, Luke Wilson, Claire Danes and red-hot Rachel McAdams (Red Eye, Wedding Crashers).

DECEMBER 21

CHEAPER BY THE DOZEN 2

The Bakers (Steve Martin and Bonnie Hunt) and their 12 kids head to the wilds for a summer vacation, where Dad finds himself competing for attention against a more skilled outdoorsman (Eugene Levy). The 2003 Cheaper By the Dozen earned a spot on my 10 Worst List for that year, and this new film's dreadful trailer hints at a comparable outcome. This looks like a retread of John Hughes' The Great Outdoors, not exactly a movie that cried out for an update.

FUN WITH DICK AND JANE

An upper-middle-class couple (Jim Carrey and Tea Leoni) decides that the only way to deal with sudden bankruptcy is to turn to a career as masked robbers. This is a remake of a feeble 1977 comedy starring Jane Fonda and George Segal; presumably, Carrey and Leoni will be more comfortable providing some laughs.

DECEMBER 23

MUNICH

Terrorists assassinate 11 Israeli athletes during the 1972 Munich Olympics, leading a special outfit to track down those responsible. Steven Spielberg directs this dramatization of the real-life tragedy, with Angels In America scribe Tony Kushner serving up the script. The cast includes Troy's Eric Bana, Geoffrey Rush and Daniel Craig, who just a couple of weeks ago was announced as the next James Bond.

THE RINGER

A loser (Johnny Knoxville) heavily in debt pretends to be mentally challenged so he can enter (and win) the Special Olympics. Here's one of those holiday movies, like Dumb and Dumber and Dude, Where's My Car?, that emphatically proves that not everyone is out for an Oscar at this time of year. Barry W. Blaustein's previous directorial credit was the tepid pro wrestling documentary Beyond the Mat.

DECEMBER 25

THE PRODUCERS

Unscrupulous producer Max Bialystock (Nathan Lane) and mild-mannered accountant Leo Bloom (Matthew Broderick) hit upon a surefire way to make millions. Three words: Springtime for Hitler. This is based on the record-breaking Broadway musical, which in turn was based on Mel Brooks' classic (and non-musical) film version from 1968. Lane and Broderick reprise their stage roles; new to the production are Uma Thurman and Will Ferrell.

RUMOR HAS IT

A young woman (Jennifer Aniston) is shocked to learn that her family was the inspiration for the characters in The Graduate — and that her own grandmother (Shirley MacLaine) was the real Mrs. Robinson. It's a risky business for a movie to invoke the spirit of a bona fide classic, but director Rob Reiner makes a go of it. The exemplary cast also includes Kevin Costner, Mark Ruffalo and Mena Suvari.

Limited Release

The following films, scheduled to open in limited release in New York and Los Angeles over the course of the next few weeks, will either reach us later this year, in early 2006, or not at all: The versatile Ang Lee (Sense and Sensibility, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon) is back in the award race with BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN, based on Annie Proulx's story about a love affair between two cowboys (Heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal)… Heath Ledger (again) stars as CASANOVA, the legendary lover who's stunned when a Venetian beauty (Sienna Miller) turns down his amorous advances; Lasse Hallstrom (Chocolat) directs… Based on Richard Price's novel (itself inspired by the Susan Smith case), FREEDOMLAND stars Samuel L. Jackson as a detective who investigates a mother's (Julianne Moore) claim that her son was kidnapped by a black man… THE MATADOR stars Pierce Brosnan as the anti-Bond, an unkempt, foul-mouthed assassin who strikes up an unlikely friendship with an American businessman (Greg Kinnear)… Woody Allen tries his hand at a Fatal Attraction-styled thriller with MATCH POINT, a London-set drama about a femme fatale (Scarlett Johansson) who drives a wedge between a philandering husband (Jonathan Rhys-Meyers) and his wife (Emily Mortimer)… MRS. HENDERSON PRESENTS casts Judi Dench as the missus of the title, the head of a '30s-era London theater in which actresses performed in the nude… THE NEW WORLD is director Terrence Malick's fourth film in 32 years, and his first since 1998's The Thin Red Line; it centers on the romance between colonist John Smith (Colin Farrell) and Native American Pocahontas (Q'Orianka Kilcher)… An Israeli woman tries to dissuade two Palestinian suicide bombers from carrying out their mission in the import PARADISE NOW… Director Marc Levin (Slam) discusses the current state of anti-Semitism with everyone from white supremacists to Holocaust survivors in the documentary PROTOCOLS OF ZION… Comedienne Sarah Silverman, whose extended scene in The Aristocrats was one of the movie's funniest, brings her off-Broadway act to the big screen in SARAH SILVERMAN: JESUS IS MAGIC… Tackling the sort of role that generally wins awards, Felicity Huffman (Desperate Housewives) plays a transsexual who meets the son (Kevin Zegers) she fathered while still a man in the road trip odyssey TRANSAMERICA… The latest from writer-director Atom Egoyan (The Sweet Hereafter), WHERE THE TRUTH LIES stars Kevin Bacon and Colin Firth as the members of a popular comedy team whose involvement in the death of a fan is investigated years later by a budding novelist (Alison Lohman)… The final film completed by the Merchant-Ivory team before the former's death this past May, THE WHITE COUNTESS is set in 1930s Shanghai and details the relationship between a blind former diplomat (Ralph Fiennes) and a Russian refugee (Natasha Richardson) who had to leave her royal life behind.