Hurricane experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration hope people don’t become complacent as the agency is the latest to forecast a “below-normal” storm season.
Highlighting new drone technologies and changes in the forecast cone at an event in Lakeland, the federal agency’s outlook anticipates up to 14 named storms for the six-month season that begins June 1.
Between three and six of the named storms are expected to reach hurricane strength, with winds at or above 74 mph. The forecast also includes three-to-five of the hurricanes reaching Category 3 or greater status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, where maximum winds are at least 111 mph.
NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said people shouldn’t ease preparations because of the forecast. He noted that there were only four hurricanes in 1992 when Hurricane Andrew hit South Florida with 175 mph sustained winds and four in 1965 when Hurricane Betsy left more than 80 dead on a path that included southern Florida and Louisiana.
“We’re ready. We need to get the American public ready as well. And don’t let words like below average – don’t let all those words change the way you prepare,” Graham said during a press event at the NOAA Aircraft Operations Center in Lakeland. “Even if you have a few storms, they could be big ones.”
The forecast is based in part on “El Niño” conditions occurring late in the six-month hurricane season that begins June 1. This weather phemomenon is said to increase vertical wind shear that disrupts systems from building and makes it harder for the development of the eastern waves coming off of Africa to strengthen into storms.
Graham said people also need to look beyond the forecast size of a storm and listen for threats of flooding rainfall, rip currents, storm surge, and other inland dangers.
For the 2026 season, Graham noted the National Hurricane Center cone graphic will include tropical storm and hurricane watches and warnings for inland areas and account for forward motions and directional or lateral uncertainty rather than straight track error.
“This is a much better way to independently visualize uncertainty in both direction and timing,” Graham said.
Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA’s lead hurricane season forecaster, said the impacts of El Niño are mostly on the Atlantic waters.
“Most of the effects of El Niño are deep in the tropics,” Rosencrans said. “They won’t have those long run-ups, those long storm tracks, you can get those storms in the Gulf that have the short awareness times.”
The forecast follows similar outlooks from Colorado State University researchers, who have called for a “somewhat below-normal” Atlantic hurricane season, and the meteorological company AccuWeather.
The school’s forecast models have predicted 13 named storms, instead of 14 to 15 in an average year, six hurricanes instead of seven, and two reaching major storm strength instead of three.
The researchers also based their model on waters being slightly cooler than normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic and for currently weak La Niña conditions to likely transition to El Niño in a few months.
The meteorological company AccuWeather has predicted 11 to 16 named storms for 2026, with four to seven reaching hurricane strength.
Last year, the Atlantic produced 13 named storms and five hurricanes, four of which reached Category 3.
None of the 2025 storms, though, made a direct landfall in Florida or the U.S.
From 2022 to 2024, Florida took direct hits from six hurricanes, including four that were Category 3 or stronger.
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This article appears in May 21 – 27, 2026.