According to Dr. Yonggang Liu with the USF College of Marine Science Department, after studying the various models on the oil spill trajectory based on wind forecasts, he believes a rough estimate of the arrival time of the oil spill into the Florida Keys will happen on either May 23 or 24, and into Miami possibly as early as May 28.
Confirming what other USF Marine Science officials said on Monday, Dr. Liu says that the oil spill has been "entrained in the Loop Current or at least on the edge of the Loop Current."
Government officials as recently as yesterday disagree. Rear Adm. Mary E. Landry of the Coast Guard, one of the top officials overseeing the spill response, said yesterday:
"We know that the oil has not entered the loop current at this time. There may be some leading edge sheen that’s getting closer to the loop current, but this spill has not entered the loop current proper.”
But if officials disagree about that, it seems to be only a question as to when the spill flows into the Loop Current, though there may be a dispute about how serious the situation becomes once it's in the Current.
This article appears in May 13-19, 2010.