Hurricanes Everyone has their own theories on why we haven’t been hit by a major hurricane since 1912. Is it a Native American blessing? Is it favorable Gulf Stream currents? But if one did line up with us, a seasoned Tampa Bay resident would likely have a superb technical understanding of how spaghetti models work, and also how to survive for days without A/C and drinking water siphoned from the upper deck of a toilet. Credit: Image via NOAA

Idalia strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane overnight, and is on track to make landfall along Florida’s Gulf coast as a dangerous major storm early Wednesday morning.

According to the National Hurricane Center’s 5 a.m. report, Idalia’s track bumped slightly west, but is still on target to make landfall just north of Tampa Bay, heading inland between Tallahassee and Gainesville.

“The new forecast is similar to the previous one, and confidence is increasing in an extremely dangerous major hurricane making landfall Wednesday along the west coast or Big Bend region of Florida” said the report.

As of now, Idalia is about 360 miles south of Tampa Bay, traveling north at about 14 mph with sustained winds of 75 mph.

However, forecasters say Idalia will speed up and grow in strength throughout the day, eventually becoming a possible Category 3 storm before reaching Florida Wednesday.

Forecasters predict the hurricane will reach peak sustained winds of 120 mph with gusts up to 150 mph and storm surge that could surpass 12 feet.

“With an inner core now present, the stage is set for Idalia to rapidly intensify before landfall. Shear should continue to lower over the cyclone as an upper-level trough departs the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and ridging builds closer to the cyclone,” continued the report. “These changes, combined with extremely warm and deep waters the hurricane will be traversing, all strongly point to rapid intensification.”

Most of Florida’s West coast is under a hurricane and storm surge warning. Residents of Tampa Bay can expect between 4 to 8 inches of rain, with some areas receiving more.

🗣️ WRAP UP PREPARATIONS! #HurricaneIdalia continues to move north!

Potential Impacts:
🌊8-12' storm surge further north, 4-7' Tampa Bay
🌬️ TS/H force winds depending on location
🌧️4-8" rain with locally higher amounts
🌪️ Several tornadoes possible

¡Vea gráfica en Español!#FLwx pic.twitter.com/kIZFxtqUBY
— NWS Tampa Bay (@NWSTampaBay) August 29, 2023

The National Weather Service also predicts between 4 to 7 feet of storm surge for the Tampa Bay area, and 8 to 12 feet further north.

The Tampa Bay region is expected to feel tropical force winds beginning late Tuesday afternoon. Forecasters are also warning of the possibility of tornadoes in the Tampa Bay area starting Tuesday night.

Creative Loafing Tampa Bay will keep an updated list of local shelters, sandbag locations and closures here.

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